Why Coal Prices Could Double this Year... and How To Profit from the SurgeWelcome to the Coal Bull Market.Coal, whose surging price has outpaced crude oil and natural gas, could double this year.When heavy rains and flooding cripple two million metric tons of thermal coal production at an Ensham mine in Queensland, Australia, coal prices go nuts. But when crippling China snowstorms, floods in Quee...Read More
Cejay Kim October 21, 2015 Category: Research The S&P 500 is the most commonly used benchmark in measuring the performance of stocks. Because of the size of its constituents and the liquidity of its market, it is also used as a leading indicator of US equities in general. Thus, a lot of people look to the S&P 500 to get a feel of where stocks will trade in the future.We charted the S&P...Read More
Cejay Kim October 14, 2015 Category: Research Since the NYSE put in a top in late May, the index has dropped almost 10%. We looked around the world in order to see how the other large markets are doing.Since May 21, 2015, all the major trading centres around the world have notched losses, with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the Shanghai Stock Exchange leading the way, off -30.9% and -27.4%, respe...Read More
Cejay Kim September 16, 2015 Category: Research Who is Dr. Copper? He is believed to have a PhD in advanced economics because of his almost supernatural ability of predicting inflection points in the economy. He is looked at as a leading indicator because of his widespread application across industries; when copper prices decline there is a slowdown in growth and when prices increase there is a st...Read More
Cejay Kim September 9, 2015 Category: Research We are mired in almost the longest gold bear market in history. Since April 2011, the (HUI) Gold BUGS Index has declined more than 80%, while in the same period physical gold has declined 25%.Needless to the say, miners have experienced significantly more volatility than the underlying commodity. This is because gold producers are leveraged to gold pr...Read More
Cejay Kim September 3, 2015 Category: Research Since the 1950s, the S&P 500 has experienced ten bull markets and nine bear markets. The average length of a bull market has been 282 weeks, with the bear markets averaging 67 weeks.The most prolific bull market occurred during December 4, 1987 to March 24, 2000, when the S&P returned 549% over 642 weeks. To put that into perspective, the curr...Read More
Cejay Kim August 26, 2015 Category: Research 1.The divergence between commodities and the S&P 500 is at an all-time high. The recent flash crash of the S&P 500 suggests that we are nearing a closing of the gap.2.We continue to update this chart and wonder just how much longer this bear can last. The TSX Venture has now almost hit the record low it achieved during the 2008-2009 Financial Cr...Read More
Cejay Kim August 19, 2015 Category: Research No one wants to buy TSX Venture-listed companies. The numbers speak for themselves, from 2011 the total shares traded dropped from 64.5 billion to a measly 18.5 billion year-to-date. And the total value traded in those shares was down from C$42.5 billion to C$5.6 billion.You can thank the junior miners for that, who comprise 60% of the TSXV, or 1,154 of...Read More
Cejay Kim August 12, 2015 Category: Research As of June 30, 2015, the TSX Venture in aggregate has raised $1.7 billion in capital and is on pace to raise $3.4 billion by the end of the year. This is a 35% decline from last year and almost a 70% drop from 2011.The number of new issuers has also decreased substantially. There has only been 43 new listings year-to-date, versus the 122 in 2014 and 334...Read More
Cejay Kim August 5, 2015 Category: Research This cartoon, drawn by Keven Kallaugher (KAL) in 1989, was featured on cover of the Economist and it's surprising how relevant it remains.What we see is the classic case of 'herd instinct', or the mentality in which an individual lacks unique decision-making and simply acts in the same way as the majority around them. In finance, this means investors gra...Read More
Cejay Kim July 26, 2015 Category: Research Removing new issues, from 2011 to April 2015, the TSX Venture has had over1,200 casualties, or has lost over50% of its listed constituents. While new companies have been slowly replacing the dead, the index is still 320 companies lighter.Companies are still trying, but are failing. Read More
Cejay Kim July 23, 2015 Category: Research This chart seems to be making its rounds so we decided to update it. Unfortunately, since we last published it, gold has plunged even more and the TSXVentures inches closer to its largest decline ever. The length of this bear market is also staggering, in four months' time it will have encompassed the total days of all the bear markets combined.Read More
Mining stocks have received a lot of attention over recent years, as more and more investors have been turning to this sector in search of attractive returns. But as witnessed last year, mining companies in particular can quickly make a turn for the worse, with rising operational costs and falling commodity prices making big impacts on bottom line returns [for more commodity news and analysis sub...Read More
2013 was undoubtedly a rough year for commodities, particularly for precious metals like gold and silver. There were, however, some bright spots in the space, including cocoa, soybean meal, orange juice, gasoline, and brent. For the coming year, analysts remain rather pessimistic on the broad commodity market. Goldman Sachs analysts have noted: "Last year, we pointed to the ongoing shift in our co...Read More
With Alcoa (AA) kicking off earnings season this week, investors will be keeping a close eye on the results of their favorite commodity stocks. On Tuesday, the largest U.S. aluminum producer reported a profit of $24 million in the third quarter - a significant uptick from the $143 million loss reported a year ago. Revenues for the company came in at $5.765 billion, beating analyst estimates of $5....Read More
In the commodity world, trade agreements and regulations can either make or break a particular market. Whether it be new alliances, tariffs, or taxes, each decision made by commodity producing countries can have a significant and material impact on the flow of goods and natural resources. Over recent years, one country has struggled to take a concrete stance on its trade agreements, going back and...Read More
When it comes to commodity stocks, there is perhaps no name more prolific than BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP). The Australian-based natural resource giant has operations across the world and has its hands in everything from iron ore and natural gas to aluminum and diamond mining. And while the company's over 150-year history is certainly a testament to its success, BHP Billiton has recently fallen out of...Read More
While the global economic slowdown has impacted nearly every corner of the investable universe, one commodity group that has been hit particularly hard has been energy. Oil, gas, coal, and even nuclear power have all fallen victim to sluggish economic growth and dwindling global demand. And in its annual energy report, BP takes a closer look at how exactly the global recession has impacted the sup...Read More
It used to be that coal dominated energy consumption around the world, as this fossil fuel was both abundant and relatively cheap to use. But as big oil stepped in, the past few decades have seen dependence on coal cool off. In more recent years, coal has taken an even bigger hit as developed countries have attacked the fuel source for its negative environmental impact. As fracking continues to pi...Read More
As markets continue to roar forward, many investors have turned their gaze toward the commodity world, wondering how this asset class will fare after a "super-cycle" filled with gains. While there are a number of important factors at play, it is widely agreed that China will have a significant impact on the future of some of the world's most popular hard assets. What is not widely agreed upon, is...Read More