Gensource Potash Corporation ("Gensource" or the "Company") (TSX.V: GSP), a fertilizer development company focused on sustainable potash production, announces the completion of a National Instrument (NI) 43-101 Technical Report (the “2021 Technical Report”), providing the most current technical and economic information for its first project, the Tugaske Project (the “Project” or “Tugaske”). The Project is nearing completion of the non-recourse financing process with its debt and equity partners – aiming to move towards construction later this year. The Company is excited to be able to provide this up-to-date information to the public and its dedicated shareholder group.
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Figure 1: Conceptual Rendering for Tugaske Project Plant Site (Photo: Business Wire)
Since the publication of the Company’s previous NI 43-101 Technical Report in February, 2018 (the “2018 Technical Report”), Gensource has achieved key milestones required to move the Project forward to implementation, including: additional resource confirmation drilling and geological studies focused on operational items, securing a customer for 100% of the intended production from the Project (referred to as the “Offtaker”), arranging for the senior debt facility, attracting potential equity partners, advancing engineering and design efforts and completing land control activities to enable the project to proceed into construction smoothly. The previously disclosed Feasibility Study has been advanced past the feasibility level and, with the selection of key vendors and advancing long-lead procurement, the project has now completed a FEED (Front End Engineering and Design) level Study, ready for full execution. All of this work has been consolidated in the 2021 Technical Report.
Mike Ferguson, President & CEO of Gensource commented, “Since our last technical report, the Company has grown rapidly and the Project has progressed notably. Gensource and our partners remain confident that the Tugaske Project, as validated by our team of experts and disclosed in this 2021 Technical Report, is technically and economically robust – and as such, we continue to move as swiftly as possible to complete the financing process in order to see the Project realized. We are pleased to share the updates on our first project, and look forward to more exciting announcements to come.”
Following are the main highlights from the 2021 Technical Report.
Project Summary:
Modifications were made to the previous engineering work to allow the Tugaske Project to suit the requirements of the US market. Such modifications included the incorporation of a revised final product specification as well as a traditional bulk product storage, loading and hauling strategy. See Table 1 for general highlights of the Tugaske Project. See Figure 1 for a conceptual rendering of the Tugaske Project plant site.
Table 1: Tugaske Project Highlights
Parameter |
Results |
Production
|
250,000 tonnes per year of final saleable product, 60% K2O, granular grade (SGN 300), pink or white/clear (“MOP”, or “potash”) |
Mine life: |
58+ years based on the Reserve defined in the Patience Lake Sub-Member 1 (PLM 1) only (note: economic analysis only considers 40 years of full production) |
Mining method: |
Selective solution mining using horizontal caverns |
Processing: |
Cooling crystallization incorporating innovative energy efficiency measures |
Product storage
|
Approximately 25,000 short tons of total product storage at the Project site, comprising a bulk product storage warehouse and bulk rail car storage track. Ability to load and ship product via bulk rail and/or bulk truck |
Product
|
A rail spur is planned to the plant site to allow all product to be transported by rail. The Project’s Offtaker will take title to the product FCA Tugaske Project mine site; as such, there are no transportation and logistics costs (shipping) borne by Gensource or the Project. All transportation and logistics costs appear as deductions to the net mine site price received for the product. |
CAPEX: |
$CAD 353.6 Million, including contingency (≈$US 261.9 Million) |
Construction: |
~ 24-month construction period, including commissioning and start-up. Peak construction work force of approximately 150. |
OPEX: |
$CAD 64.10/t final product ($US 47.48/t). The major components of OPEX are natural gas delivered to site at $CAD 3.12 /GJ and operating personnel count of 46 full time staff. |
Sustaining
|
Average annual sustaining capital of $CAD 21.24/t ($US 15.73/t) per year, including full cavern (6) and pipeline replacement every 12 years |
Project Financing:
In a news release, dated May 21, 2019, Gensource announced it had entered into a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to form a joint venture (JV) company to develop the Tugaske Project. The parties to the JV reached an agreement in principle on offtake amount, duration of offtake, equity contribution and the JV operating structure.
In a subsequent news release dated January 30, 2020, Gensource officially announced Helm AG and its North American subsidiary, Helm Fertilizer Corp. (together “Helm”), as the Tugaske Project’s Offtaker. Helm, founded in 1900, is a privately-owned company based in Hamburg, Germany. Helm is one of the world’s largest chemical marketing companies and provides access to the world’s key markets through its specific regional knowledge and more than 100 subsidiaries, sales offices, and participations in over 30 countries. The definitive offtake agreement for Tugaske will have Helm purchase 100% of the production from the Project for 10 years, renewable thereafter.
In a news release dated October 18, 2019, Gensource announced it formally mandated KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH (“KfW”) to act as Lead Arranger for the senior debt component of the Tugaske Project finance package. KfW IPEX-Bank is responsible for international project finance within the larger KfW Bank Group, and is headquartered in Frankfurt, Germany. Further, in a news release dated May 19, 2020, Gensource announced that the French multinational bank, Société Générale (“SocGen”), has also joined the banking group for Tugaske as joint lead arranger of the debt facility. Together, KfW and SocGen are referred to as the “Senior Lenders”.
Through the debt financing process, the Senior Lenders have engaged independent consultants to perform due diligence reviews on the following aspects of the Project: Technical, Marketing, Environmental & Social, Legal, Insurance, and Financial Modelling. While each review identifies and discusses risks related to the Project, no fatal flaws have been identified. Non-material risks can be mitigated through the implementation of accepted engineering practices.
As part of the financing, the Project is eligible for insurance coverage under the German Export Credit Agency (“ECA”) Euler Hermes – who, on behalf of the German Government, provides an export credit guarantee in the form of insurance on the exports of services, materials, equipment, etc. from Germany.
To optimize qualifying German content in the Project, eligible for ECA coverage, Gensource formally engaged K-UTEC AG Salt Technologies, Koeppern GmbH & Co KG, and Ebner GmbH & Co KG (referred to as “KKE” for simplicity). Together, KKE represent world-class services in the area of potash process design, equipment fabrication and supply. Based on the combined experience and capabilities of KKE, Gensource saw an opportunity to not only work with these 3 select German companies and have this work qualify for ECA coverage, but also to simplify the number of Project interfaces by packaging the entire process plant into a single design-supply-commission contract package. Packaging the entire process plant into one export contract enables KKE to provide a process guarantee for the production quality and quantity specified for the Project.
In addition to the engagement of KKE, Siemens AG (“Siemens”) has been engaged by Gensource to provide the design, supply and commission of the site-wide electrical, instrumentation and controls system. Siemens is a German multinational conglomerate company headquartered in Munich, Germany, with branch offices all over the world. Further, Gensource is also working with MAVEG Industrieausrüstungen GmbH (“MAVEG”), who is a procurement general contractor and content aggregator based in Ratingen, Germany. The role of MAVEG will be to help manage the procurement and export process, acting as the “exporter of record” for any services, equipment, and/or materials outside the KKE & Siemens packages that Gensource wishes to have covered under the ECA scheme.
Mineral Resources
The geological model of the deposit (constructed in Maptek Vulcan) was updated using all available drilling information, including the data collected from 2 most recent resource confirmation wells completed in the Project area by Gensource. The inclusion of these wells added to the robustness of the geological model and resulted in the reclassification of Resource previously estimated. Figure 2 shows the location of the exploration drill holes within the Project area, including the 2 additional wells drilled by Gensource in 2018 and 2019 (noted as “4-1” and “8-4” respectively). It should be noted that these 2 wells are drilled within the area covered by 3D seismic.
As per CIM Definition Standards (2014), Mineral Resource for the 2021 Technical Report was classified as: Inferred, Indicated, and Measured. The Resource categories were calculated for the Patience Lake and the Belle Plaine Members only. Due to the pervasive presence of carnallite and lower grades, no Resource was defined for the deepest horizon, the Esterhazy Member.
Table 2 shows a sensitivity analysis of the sylvite tonnage based on a range of possible recovery rates (Effective February 18, 2021) – with the assumed “base case” recovery of 40% (outlined in red) resulting in over 287 Million tonnes of Measured and Indicated Resource in the Vanguard Area. This is an increase of approximately 82% over the Measured and Indicated Resources estimated in the 2018 Technical Report.
Table 2: Measured & Indicated Resource Summary (With Base Case Highlighted) |
||||||
Resource Category | Total Sylvinite Tonnage Million tonnes (Mt) |
Sylvinite Tonnage with Deductions Million tonnes (Mt) |
Sylvite Tonnage (KCl), 30% recovery Million tonnes (Mt) |
Sylvite Tonnage (KCl), 40% recovery Million tonnes (Mt) |
Sylvite Tonnage (KCl), 50% recovery Million tonnes (Mt) |
|
Measured | 1223.76 |
1162.57 |
124.49 |
165.99 |
207.49 |
|
Indicated | 955.32 |
859.79 |
91.21 |
121.62 |
152.02 |
|
Total | 2179.08 |
2022.36 |
215.71 |
287.61 |
359.51 |
Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources are inclusive of those Mineral Resources modified to produce the Mineral Reserves – for which Modifying Factors are considered and applied. The following assumptions were applied during the Resource Estimation:
Assuming the base case recovery of 40%, over 287 Million tonnes of Resource has been classified in the Measured and Indicated categories in the Vanguard Area. Based on the potential of future work to devise suitable engineering and economics for the conversion of this Resource into Reserve (as has been regularly accomplished in Saskatchewan’s Prairie Evaporite deposit since mining began in the late 1950’s), and subsequent application of the pertinent Modifying Factors, when using the baseline design capacity for annual production of 250,000 tonnes for a Gensource module, it can be seen that the probable life of these modules could theoretically approach multiple centuries.
Mineral Reserves
International definitions of Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves, including the CIM Definition Standards (2014) provide for a direct relationship between Indicated Mineral Resources and Probable Mineral Reserves, and between Measured Mineral Resources and Proven Mineral Reserves. The Modifying Factors applied to the Reserve calculated for the Tugaske Project in the 2021 Technical Report include:
For conservatism, only continuous operation of the solution mining cavern, which is focused on the Lower sub-member of the Patience Lake (“PLM 1”), is being considered. Therefore, the Mineral Reserve represents only the base case for the feasibility economics. The PLM 1 is on average 3.9m thick, with average potash grades of 43% KCl, across the Vanguard Area.
Table 3: PLM 1 Proven & Probable Reserve Summary
Reserve Category | Mean Cavern Thickness (m) |
KCl Grade (wt. %) |
Carnallite Grade (wt. %) |
Insolubles Grade (wt. %) |
Cavern Volume (m3) |
Cavern Recovery (%) |
Reduction for Unknown Anomalies |
Recoverable Cavern Volume (m3) |
Sylvinite Tonnage Million Tonnes (Mt) |
MOP Tonnage Million Tonne (Mt) |
Proven | 3.90 |
42.02 |
0.71 |
6.44 |
15,657,077 |
60.3 |
0.95 |
8,966,928 |
18.65 |
7.84 |
Probable | 3.86 |
42.56 |
0.69 |
6.35 |
13,055,672 |
63.7 |
0.91 |
7,566,632 |
15.74 |
6.70 |
TOTAL | 3.88 |
42.26 |
0.70 |
6.40 |
28,712,749 |
61.8 |
0.93 |
16,533,560 |
34.39 |
14.53 |
Table 3 shows over 14.5 Million Tonnes of Proven and Probable Reserve for the Tugaske Project (Effective February 26, 2021), based on the PLM 1 only, which indicates a minimum expected mine life of at least 58 years – based on the annual production of 250,000 tonnes of saleable Muriate of Potash (MOP). This is an increase in Proven and Probable Reserves of approximately 48% compared to the results disclosed in the 2018 Technical Report.
Since the initial mine plan focuses only on the PLM 1, only a small portion of the overall Resource is converted to Reserve for the base case. In reality, mining of the PLM 1 is likely to progress upwards over time into other sub-members of the Patience Lake (i.e., PLM 2 through PLM 4); thus, increasing the potential amount of KCl tonnes recovered from each cavern.
Mining Methods
Gensource’s selective solution mining method uses caverns created through horizontal drilling technics. The caverns are triangular in shape, approximately 800 m x 1600 m, and are located at the bottom of the target mining horizon, initially the PLM1. A mine plan was developed and caverns arranged throughout the solution mining area to optimize access to the PLM1 Reserve. The Life of Mine Plan, as presently configured, consists of 36 horizontal caverns. See Figure 3, showing the cavern layout within the initial solution mining area (marked by the black square). The contours represent the KCl grades of the PLM 1.
Based on the cavern plan dimensions, conservative factors were applied to develop the cavern production and resulting cavern life estimates. It is further estimated that each solution mining cavern will produce an average of about 499,000 tonnes over its life. The planned cavern production is 45,000 tonnes per year, per cavern, giving each cavern an estimated operating life of approximately 12 years. Ultimately, each cavern will be operated as long as it is economic, but for conservatism, a full cavern and wellfield replacement (~ $CAD 46 Million) is included twice over the economic life modelled for the Project.
Recovery Methods
The process design by KKE will guarantee a minimum of 250,000 tonnes per year of saleable MOP, granular grade (SGN 300), pink or clear (white). Overall, the fundamental process design remains unchanged, using cooling crystallization. Temperature reduction is accomplished by mechanical cooling process. The brine stream continuously recirculates between the solution mining caverns and the process plant, picking up KCl in the caverns and crystallizing it into solid KCl in the process plant. Once in crystalline form, the KCl is dewatered by centrifuged and dried. Dry crystals then report to the compaction and screening circuit where they are converted to SGN 300 granular grade product using industry standard methods.
Market Studies and Contracts
As disclosed, Helm is the offtaker for the project as well as an equity investor in Tugaske. Helm will purchase 100% of the production from the Project for a term of 10 years, renewable thereafter. The off-take includes typical take or pay provisions, standard industry commercial terms and market-based pricing. Title transfer will occur at the Tugaske plant site.
From the Tugaske site, Helm will place product with strategic customers located in the US with a goal of efficiency in the balance of market price and transportation and logistics costs. Due to the agreed pricing formula, transportation and logistics costs are accounted for in the determination of the net-back or net mine site price for the product.
Argus Consulting Services, (“Argus”) was engaged in 2020 to conduct a market analysis and pricing forecast for Tugaske’s defined market area. Argus and its industry experts executed a confidential study related to MOP supply, demand, costs and pricing, with specific focus on the Project’s target market area, providing an in-depth look into MOP supply and demand fundamentals for the target market, including consumption by region, the cost to serve to these regions, the competitive environment and the margins on offer based on the marketing plan developed by Helm.
Capital & Operating Costs
A fundamental product of the recent Project efforts included an updated capital cost estimate (“CCE”), which is also referred to as the capital expenditure (or, “CAPEX”). Key aspects incorporated into the updated Project CAPEX estimate are:
The total CAPEX for the Tugaske Project is estimated at $CAD 353.6 Million ($US 261.9 Million), including contingency of approximately 10%. See Table 4 for the CAPEX summarized by Project Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Area.
Table 4: CAPEX Estimate by WBS Area |
|
WBS Area |
$CAD |
100 - Mining |
30,760,003 |
200 - Well Field |
17,084,230 |
300 - Process Plant |
98,044,129 |
400 - Product Storage & Loadout |
15,893,291 |
500 - Site Infrastructure |
23,737,903 |
600 - Offsites |
7,879,549 |
700 - Non-Process Facilities |
30,947,811 |
900 - Project Indirects |
97,187,061 |
SUB-TOTAL (Pre-Contingency) |
321,533,977 |
980 – Contingency |
32,153,398 |
GRAND TOTAL |
353,687,375
|
*Note: Assumes $US:$CAD Exchange of 1:1.35
Updates have also been made to the anticipated operating expenditures (“OPEX”), as well as the budgeted maintenance costs and sustaining capital expenditures (“sustaining CAPEX”) of the operations. The adjustments incorporated changes driven by the integration of KKE’s technical design changes to the process and the resulting adjustments to the required utilities to support these process changes. Also, with feedback provided by the Senior Lenders’ Independent Engineer during the technical due diligence process, adjustments were made to the annual budget estimates to provide additional risk-mitigation for the operations and conservatism in the Project economics. Figure 4 represents the “All-In” cash operating costs of the Tugaske Project (shown in $US per tonne KCl), once it reaches full production.
Due to the selective mining method and Gensource’s processing enhancements, the small-scale facilities will run at extremely low cost per tonne of product produced. When compared to data published by other projects, the OPEX per tonne appears at the low end of the lowest quartile of all potash operations globally.
Economic Analysis
The financial performance of the Project has been updated, once again using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis. The DCF analysis for the Project uses the following input parameters and is based on the assumptions as described below:
While CAPEX and OPEX were added to the Project to account for both identified and unidentified risks, the overall project financing package has also been defined. The financing package includes costs for not only CAPEX, but also other financing costs including fees, closing costs, ECA premiums, interest during construction, cost overrun account, debt service reserve account, price protection account and other senior lender credit enhancements. Table 5 shows the baseline sources and uses of funds for the Project, which are the basis for the calculation of financial performance. These financial model input parameters are subject to change as the definitive senior debt facility agreement is completed and signed.
Table 5: Project Sources & Uses of Funds* |
|||
Description |
Amount ($US) |
Percent of Total |
|
Sources: |
|||
Senior Debt |
213,000,000 |
60.3 |
% |
Equity (Includes cash and
|
140,138,517 |
39.7 |
% |
Total Sources: |
353,138,517 |
100 |
% |
Uses: |
|
|
|
Capex |
238,173,316 |
67.4 |
% |
Cost Overrun Account |
30,000,000 |
8.5 |
% |
Paid-In capital (non-cash) |
30,000,000 |
8.5 |
% |
Project Contingency |
23,817,332 |
6.7 |
% |
Banking fees, ECA premium
|
25,660,079 |
7.3 |
% |
Interest during construction |
5,487,790 |
1.6 |
% |
Total Uses of Funds: |
353,138,517 |
100 |
% |
*Note: These financial model input parameters remain in negotiations and are subject to change as the definitive senior debt facility agreement is completed.
Incorporating these financing costs with the revised CAPEX and OPEX into the updated financial model (which, at the Effective Date of this Report is undergoing its final audit process), it has been found that the Tugaske Project remains financially robust, demonstrating attractive economics. The key financial performance indicators are provided in Table 6.
Table 6: Financial Performance Summary |
|||||||||
Economic
|
Before Sask.
|
After Sask.
|
Final After-
|
||||||
NPV8 ($CAD) |
$ |
646,448,619 |
|
$ |
418,336,934 |
|
$ |
362,428,730 |
|
NPV8 ($US) |
$ |
478,850,829 |
|
$ |
309,879,210 |
|
$ |
268,465,726 |
|
IRR |
|
21.34 |
% |
|
18.48 |
% |
|
17.59 |
% |
*Note: The Saskatchewan Potash Profit Tax calculated does not take into account new regulations regarding R&D credits announced by the Saskatchewan Government December 2020.
**Note: Final After-tax (Corporate rate of 27%) IRR and NPV to do not take into account Net Operating Losses (NOL) that may be available to the Project. These NOL’s may be used to offset corporate taxes. Thus, the published Final After-Tax IRR/NPV may be understated.
Conclusion & Recommendations
The conclusions and recommendations in the 2021 Technical Report, consistent with those discussed in the Tugaske Project Feasibility Report (Gensource, 2020) and Tugaske Project FEED Report (Gensource, 2020) are:
Cautionary Notes:
The technical information presented in this news release has been reviewed and approved by Mr. Mike Ferguson, P.Eng., who is a Qualified Person (QP) according to NI 43-101 requirements. The following QPs, who contributed to the authoring of the Technical Report have reviewed and approved the content of this news release and consent to its disclosure:
About Gensource
Gensource Potash is a fertilizer development company based in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan and is on track to become the next fertilizer production company in that province. With a small scale and environmentally leading approach to potash production, Gensource believes its technical and business model will be the future of the industry. Gensource operates under a business plan that has two key components: (1) vertical integration with the market to ensure that all production capacity built is directed, and pre-sold, to a specific market, eliminating market-side risk; and (2) technical innovation which will allow for a small and economic potash production facility, that demonstrates environmental leadership within the industry, producing no salt tailings, therefore eliminating decommissioning risk, and requiring no surface brine ponds, thereby removing the single largest and negative environmental aspect of potash mining.
Neither TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
Caution Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This news release may contain forward looking information and Gensource cautions readers that forward- looking information is based on certain assumptions and risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations of Gensource included in this news release. This news release includes certain "forward-looking statements”, which often, but not always, can be identified by the use of words such as "believes", "anticipates", "expects", "estimates", "may", "could", "would", "will", or "plan". These statements are based on information currently available to Gensource and Gensource provides no assurance that actual results will meet management's expectations. Forward looking statements include estimates and statements with respect to Gensource’s future plans, objectives or goals, to the effect that Gensource or management expects a stated condition or result to occur, including the ability to finance the Tugaske Project or other projects, the establishment of vertical integration partnerships and the sourcing of end use potash purchasers. Since forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and address future events and conditions, by their very nature they involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results relating to Gensource’s financial condition and prospects, the ability to finance the Tugaske Project or other projects on terms which are economic or at all, the ability to establish viable vertical integration partnerships and the sourcing of end use potash purchasers could differ materially from those currently anticipated in such statements for many reasons such as: failure to finance the Tugaske Project or other projects on terms which are economic or at all; failure to settle a definitive joint venture agreement with a party and advance and finance the project; changes in general economic conditions and conditions in the financial markets; the ability to find and source off-take agreements; changes in demand and prices for potash; litigation, legislative, environmental and other judicial, regulatory, political and competitive developments; technological and operational difficulties encountered in connection with Gensource’s activities; an inability to predict and counteract the effects of COVID-19 on the business of Gensource, including but not limited to the effects of COVID-19 on the price of commodities, capital market conditions, restriction on labour and international travel and supply chains; and other matters discussed in this news release and in filings made with securities regulators. This list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of Gensource’s forward-looking statements. These and other factors should be considered carefully, and readers should not place undue reliance on Gensource’s forward-looking statements. Gensource does not undertake to update any forward-looking statement that may be made from time to time by Gensource or on its behalf, except in accordance with applicable securities laws.
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