The prospects for aluminium in 2018 appear tied to global trade concerns - particularly protectionist rhetoric coming from the United States as well as the future of supply cuts by Chinese smelters.
In the US, the primary question mark dominating market attention is the fate of the Section 232 investigation into national security issues surrounding primary aluminium imports. According to recent comments by a DC trade lawyer familiar with the matter, the administration of US President Donald Trump is "seriously considering tariffs on imports of primary aluminium," with the focus on restarting primary aluminium capacity in the US. The reaction from the US market to this has been tentative. While news about the 232 since its announcement in late April has not generally provoked movement in the US Midwest aluminium spot premium, the premium has started to move as the January 22 deadline for the investigations' conclusion draws nearer. American Metal Market's latest assessment of the premium places it...