2020 PREVIEW: Poor demand, tight margins prompt cautious outlook for aluminium supply chain

Participants are taking a cautious approach to the aluminium market in 2020, with poor downstream demand and low product premiums threatening already-tight margins in the industry.

Premiums for downstream products such as aluminium billet in the United States and Europe are both at record lows, forced down by an absence of demand this year - a trend that is expected to continue. The demand drought has primarily been driven by a decline in the global automotive sector, sparked mostly by US-led trade wars.
"The automotive sector remains the key headwind for demand. Transport accounts for 38% of US demand; 31% Europe; 48% Japan. These three markets have all seen contraction in 2019 autos sales - and our global automotive team see further potential downside in 2020," Morgan Stanley analysts said in December.
Aluminium product premiums have reacted accordingly, with premiums for billet in Europe at record lows.

Fastmarkets assessed the aluminium 6063 extrusion billet premium, ddp Italy (Brescia region) at $270-300 per tonne on Friday December 13, down from $280-310 per tonne a week earlier and the...

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