BNP Paribas: Silver 'Most Oversold Precious Metal'
BNP Paribassays silver, which with natural gas is one of only two commodities in whichspeculators have net bearish positions, is “oversold.” Analysts explain: “Our proxy for silver positioning is thenet speculative allocation reported by Comex, adjusted by the total openinterest and normalized on a scale of zero to 10. To further assess how themarket is allocated, we used the total known ETF [exchange-traded-fund]holdings since 2003 and normalized, using the same approach. There has been aconsiderable co-movement between speculators and silver since 2014. Silverpositioning score is 1.3. The non-parametric probability of reversal is 3.9%,making silver the most oversold precious metal.”
By Allen Sykoraof Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
CIBC: U.S.Dollar 'Still In The Line Of Fire'
Tuesday April 17, 2018 08:13
CIBC looks for the U.S. dollar to weakenover the remainder of the year as central banks in other countries take stepstoward tightening monetary policy. The greenback has been stable in recentmonths; however, CIBC says the dollar is “still in the line of fire” and won’tbe saved by further Federal Reserve rate hikes. “Markets are already braced fortwo more interest-rate increases,” CIBC says. “And, despite some talk of afaster pace, that’s all the tightening U.S. central bankers will be able topull off in 2018. In contrast, investors continue to under price the end ofexpansionary policies in other jurisdictions. While still taking a gradualapproach to the removal of stimulus, the ECB and BOJ [European Central Bank andBank of Japan] are likely move earlier than what’s implied by current marketpricing.” Further, foreign-investment flows don’t appear to be flooding intothe U.S. at a pace fast enough to offset what has been a further deteriorationin the current-account deficit, CIBC says. “So while fiscal stimulus has beensomewhat positive for growth prospects, a patient Fed, wider current-accountdeficit and more hawkish outlook for foreign central banks will add up to aweaker U.S. dollar over the remainder of the year.” Metals traders closelymonitor moves in the U.S. dollar, as base and precious metals alike often moveinversely to the greenback.
By Allen Sykoraof Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
Commerzbank: Palladium’s Premium Over Platinum Grows Again
Tuesday April 17, 2018 08:13
Recent strength in palladium prices have widened the premiumover sister metal platinum again, Commerzbank points out. Palladium has beenback above $1,000 ounce again, although it dipped back below ahead of New Yorktrading, with spot metal last down $6.40 to $995.60. “Much like aluminum,albeit less dynamically, palladium is also ‘profiting’ from the U.S. sanctionsagainst Russia,” Commerzbank says. In fact, the metal has rallied some 11%since U.S. sanctions were announced on April 6. “Physical buying interestappears to have increased considerably, even if this is not evident from thepalladium ETFs [exchange-traded funds], which have seen outflows of 13,000ounces since 6 April,” Commerzbank adds. Palladium has been as much as $75 pertroy ounce more expensive than platinum again, the biggest differential betweenthe two metals since late January, Commerzbank adds.
By Allen SykoraFor Kitco News
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asykora@kitco.com Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.