CANADA FX DEBT-C$ strengthens ahead of NAFTA talks as wholesale trade rises

By Kitco News / January 22, 2018 / www.kitco.com / Article Link

(Adds strategist quote, background, updates prices)

* Canadian dollar at C$1.2453, or 80.30 U.S. cents

* Canadian wholesale trade rises 0.7 percent in November

* Bond prices little changed across the yield curve

* 10-year yield touches a three-year high at 2.249 percent


By Fergal Smith

TORONTO, Jan 22 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, gravitating toward the middle of this year's range ahead of the resumption of talks to renegotiate NAFTA and as investors weighed domestic data showing an increase in wholesale trade.

The value of Canadian wholesale trade rose for the second month in a row in November on broad gains across sectors, data from Statistics Canada showed. The 0.7 percent increase was shy of economists' forecasts for a 1 percent gain, while volumes rose 0.5 percent. The sixth and penultimate round of talks on renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement among Canada, the United States and Mexico is scheduled to take place in Montreal from Tuesday to next Monday.

The future of NAFTA was the most significant downside risk the economy faced, the Bank of Canada said last week as it raised its benchmark interest rate, as expected, but tempered expectations for additional increases over the coming months.

"Everybody is waiting to see what happens with NAFTA and with inflation at the end of the week," said Alvise Marino, a foreign exchange strategist at Credit Suisse in New York.

Canada's annual inflation rate is expected to have dipped slightly in December but still remain near the Bank of Canada's 2 percent target. Analysts will watch the three measures of underlying core inflation to gauge how quickly the central bank may raise interest rates again.

At 4 p.m. (2100 GMT), the Canadian dollar was trading at C$1.2453 to the greenback, or 80.30 U.S. cents, up 0.3 percent.

The currency traded in a range of C$1.2435 to C$1.2520. Since the start of the year, the range has been C$1.2355 to C$1.2590.

Speculators have raised bullish bets on the Canadian dollar for the second straight week, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Reuters calculations showed on Friday. The U.S. dollar dipped against a basket of major currencies, although some losses were pared after news of a deal to end a U.S. government shutdown. Canadian government bond prices were little changed across the yield curve, with the 10-year rising 2 Canadian cents to yield 2.241 percent. The yield touched its highest intraday since September 2014 at 2.249 percent.

U.S. crude oil futures settled 0.4 percent higher at $63.62 a barrel. Oil is one of Canada's major exports. (Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Frances Kerry and Peter Cooney)

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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