CEE MARKETS-Hungarian bond yields jump on IRS tender, forint leads easing

By Kitco News / January 19, 2018 / www.kitco.com / Article Link

* Currencies retreat after hitting multi-year highs vs dollar

* Disappointment over IRS tender boosts Hungarian bond yields

* Hungary trying to push down borrowing costs


(Adds further rise in Hungarian bond yields, Czech parliament vote)

By Sandor Peto

BUDAPEST, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Hungary's 10-year government bond yield hit a two-month high on Friday due to concern that the central bank's (NBH) new interest rate swap (IRS) facility will not be as cheap as expected.

The forint led a weakening of Central European currencies after their surge to multi-year highs against the dollar made the greenback more attractive for investors.

The NBH, one of the most dovish central banks in the world, launched the IRS programme and mortgage note buying to push long-term market interest rates lower.

The first IRS tender, held on Thursday, disappointed. The offered amount was well below demand and the pricing less cheap than expected, triggering selling in the domestic IRS market, tracked by government bonds.

The yield on 10-year bonds rose 10 basis points on Thursday.

They added further 10 basis points on Friday, to trade at 2.17 percent, after the NBH said it planned to use the IRS facility evenly for a long period of time, "with the pricing conditions revealed at the first auction nearly unchanged".

"It is uncertain, whether they mean the nominal yield level, or the spread (over market levels)," one fixed income trader said.

The forint jumped to a 3-month high against the euro on Thursday as the tender suggested that monetary stimulus may be less aggressive than expected.

After that spike it turned into a regional underperformer on Friday against both the euro and the dollar.

The dollar is labouring near a three-year low against a basket of global currencies, partly pressured by fears of a possible U.S. government shutdown.

The forint and the zloty reached three-year highs and the Czech crown a record high against the greenback earlier this week, and on Friday they were knocked off those levels.

The selling also weakened them in their euro crosses.

The forint led the fall, shedding half a percent against the euro, to trade at 309.40 at 1431 GMT. The leu eased 0.2 percent, while the zloty and the Czech crown weakened by 0.1 percent.

The Czech central bank (CNB) may deliver its third hike since August at its February meeting. A member of its board, Tomas Nidetzky was quoted as saying on Friday that two hikes this year could be sufficient. The Czech lower house voted on Friday to allow prosecution of Prime Minister Andrej Babis in a case of alleged EU subsidy fraud. But investors usually ignore political developments in the Czech Republic.

CEE SNAPSHOT AT

MARKETS 1531 CET

CURRENCI

ES

LatestPreviousDaily Change

bid close changein 2018Czech<EURCZK= 25.3930 25.3600-0.13%+0.59%crown> Hungary<EURHUF=309.4000307.9500-0.47%+0.49%forint > Polish <EURPLN=4.16884.1652-0.09%+0.18%zloty> Romanian <EURRON=4.65954.6520-0.16%+0.43%leu> Croatian <EURHRK=7.43407.4400+0.08%-0.05%kuna > Serbian<EURRSD=118.4400118.4300-0.01%+0.05%dinar> Note:calculated from 1800 CETdailychange

LatestPreviousDaily Change

close changein 2018Prague 1121.381119.050+0.21%+4.01%

0Budapest 39871.8039663.92+0.52%+1.26%Warsaw 2600.35 2591.22+0.35%+5.65%Bucharest 8361.90 8374.67-0.15%+7.84%Ljubljana<.SBITOP832.40831.33+0.13%+3.23%

> Zagreb 1873.57 1873.87-0.02%+1.67%Belgrade <.BELEX1775.29773.33+0.25%+2.04%

5>Sofia 709.96711.20-0.17%+4.80%

BONDS

Yield Yield SpreadDaily

(bid) changevs Bund change

inCzechspreadRepublic 2-year <CZ2YT=R0.59800.0040 +120bps +2bps

R>5-year <CZ5YT=R1.04300.0140 +118bps +2bps

R>10-year<CZ10YT=1.7600 -0.0090 +119bps -1bps

RR> Poland 2-year <PL2YT=R1.5650 -0.0190 +216bps -1bps

R>5-year <PL5YT=R2.6390 -0.0180 +278bps -1bps

R>10-year<PL10YT=3.3140 -0.0160 +274bps -2bps

RR>

FORWARD RATEAGREEMEN

T

3x6 6x9 9x123M

interban

kCzech Rep 1.011.191.350.77

<PRIBOR=

> Hungary 0.110.180.250.02 Poland 1.751.771.851.72 Note: FRAare for ask pricesquotes **************************************************************(Additional reporting by Robert Muller in Prague/Marcin Goettig in Warsaw; Editing by Robin Pomeroy)

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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