CEE MARKETS-Zloty leads currency gains fuelled by weak dollar

By Kitco News / February 15, 2018 / www.kitco.com / Article Link

(Updates with Romanian auction, prices)

* Polish zloty leads gains with 0.3 pct rise vs euro

* Helped by comments from EU Commission head - analyst

* Romania fails to sell bonds, leu still near record low

* Stocks rise following gains across the globe


By Marcin Goettig

WARSAW, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Weakness in the dollar fuelled gains in most central European currencies on Thursday, with the zloty getting a further lift from signs that tensions between Poland and the European Commission might ease.

Stocks in the region also mostly gained taking a cue from increases in Asia and on Wall Street, where markets brushed aside strong U.S. inflation data and recovered further from steep looses suffered earlier this month. The zloty gained 0.3 percent to 4.1564 versus the euro by 1429 GMT, its strongest level in a week.

The Polish currency - one of the world's best performing last year - was also helped by comments from the head of the European Commission, who said on Wednesday he saw a "good chance" of a rapprochement between Poland and the EU. The ruling right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party has clashed with the EU executive on a number of issues including migrants and judicial reform.

"This sounds encouraging, but we are sceptical that the PiS government will make any necessary adjustments for such a deal to be completed," Commerzbank said in a note. "(...) we shall follow further developments with cautious optimism."

Data showing Polish inflation slowed to 1.9 percent in January did not impact the currency, cementing expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged until at least the start of 2019. The Hungarian forint gained 0.2 percent, regaining some ground after falling on Wednesday.

"The forint was bolstered by favourable international sentiment," analysts at Erste Investment said, adding the gains did not mean that a recent weakening trend versus the euro would be broken.

In the Czech Republic, trade unions at Volkswagen's Skoda Auto - one of the country's biggest exporters - started preparations for a possible strike. The Czech crown was unchanged.

The Romanian leu was also flat, hovering close to an all-time low versus the euro that it touched in January. On Thursday Romania rejected all bids at a treasury bond tender, for the 17th time since October. "Uncertainty over the interest rate outlook is the main reason for the low bids, this and the external debt context," said Ciprian Dascalu, chief economist at ING Bank Romania.

"The market is expecting rate hikes but it is unclear by how much they will rise," Dascalu said.

CEESNAPSHOT AT1529 CET

MARKETS

CURRENCIES

LatestPreviousDailyChange

bid close change in 2018Czech crown 25.3800 25.3835 +0.02%0.58%Hungary forint 311.7000312.1900 +0.16% -0.38%Polish zloty 4.15644.1685 +0.29%0.46%Romanian leu 4.66254.6617 -0.02%0.32%Croatian kuna 7.43707.4355 -0.02% -0.12%Serbian dinar 118.0700118.1700 +0.08%0.28%Note: daily versus previousclose at1800change CET

STOCKS

LatestPreviousDailyChange

close change in 2018Prague 1113.59 1109.63 +0.36% +3.29%Budapest 38930.3138454.35 +1.24% -1.14%Warsaw 2455.30 2449.79 +0.22% -0.24%Bucharest 8288.56 8167.16 +1.49% +6.90%Ljubljana 811.70813.53 -0.22% +0.66%Zagreb 1856.90 1851.09 +0.31% +0.76%

BONDS

Yield Yield Spread Daily

(bid) changevs Bundchange

inCzech Republicspread2-year<CZ2YT=RR 0.525-0.063 +102bp-7bps

>s5-year<CZ5YT=RR 1.082 0.006 +097bp-1bps

>s10-year <CZ10YT=R 1.842 0.009 +107bp-1bps

R> sPoland 2-year<PL2YT=RR 1.758 0.006 +225bp+0bps

>s5-year<PL5YT=RR 2.752 0.022 +264bp+1bps

>s10-year <PL10YT=R 3.539 0.014 +276bp-1bps

R> s

FORWARDRATEAGREEMENT

3x6 6x9 9x12 3M

inter

bankHungary <0.070.110.215 0.02

BUBOR=> Poland <1.771.791.851 1.72

WIBOR=> ***********************************************************(Additional reporting by Reuters bureaus, Luiza Ilie in Bucharest, writing by Marcin Goettig; editing by Gareth Jones)

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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