As reported by Metal Bulletin this week, the WSA presented their upwardly revised apparent demand growth forecasts for the world to a whopping 7% in 2017 thanks to a new, double-digit growth prediction for China, from merely zilch (0%) as predicted back in April.
We have at Metal Bulletin Research (MBR) been pointing out since the first half of the year that any growth predicted under 5% for the year, let alone the WSA's 0%, would have needed a hasty revision in recent months, and especially after another fantastically strong Q3 (see chart) when Chinese demand actually rose further, pulling prices of steel and related raw materials with it. The circa 3% year-on-year growth in apparent demand expected by the Vale's and ArcelorMittal's in the first half would, though no longer either company's base view today, have needed a Q4 collapse to bear true.
As the blue bars show, the year-on-year growth in Chinese steel consumption, as calculated by us using WSA and Chinese customs data, has been above 10% for most of the year though as we have been predicting, it has been slowing down, on this y-y basis,...