Forget Rare Earths, Aluminum Is the Metal of the Moment
Aluminum may not have the sparkle of copper or the geopolitical intrigue of rare earths, but it is undeniably the metal of the moment, according to one report. Read to see some stocks in the space, including a small-cap that is a top pick among billionaires.
Aluminum may not have the sparkle of copper or the geopolitical intrigue of rare earths, but it is undeniably the metal of the moment, according to Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas in an October 30 piece.
Essential to modern life and ubiquitous in the global economy, aluminum is at a critical juncture: the world could be on the brink of a supply crisis or becoming increasingly reliant on China or perhaps both.
"The background is unsettling: Aluminum is trading at a three-year high, near US$2,900 per metric ton. Although still far from the record, the current price is historically elevated, in the 5% top end of the 1990 to 2025 price range," Blas wrote. "Look at annual averages, and this year is heading to the fourth highest ever."
While political leaders focus on copper and elements like germanium and rare earths, aluminum often flies under the radar, the report said. Yet, it is vital to the global economy. From airplanes and iPhones to window frames, soda cans, electric vehicles, and household appliances, aluminum is indispensable. It's hard to envision further electrification without this silvery metal. With an annual consumption value nearing US$300 billion, aluminum is the largest of all non-ferrous metals, second only to steel in overall use, according to the Bloomberg piece.
On November 4, Channelchek reported that aluminum prices have soared to their highest point since May 2022, driven by supply constraints in China and renewed optimism for global demand following a tentative trade truce between the United States and China.
In October, aluminum surged over 7%, marking its strongest monthly performance in more than a year, according to the report.
China, the world's largest aluminum producer, has imposed state-mandated production limits, gradually tightening supply, the piece said. Meanwhile, demand is rebounding across key sectors such as construction, automotive, and consumer goods. This combination of limited supply and recovering demand is pushing aluminum prices upward, as buyers compete for a scarce quantity of the metal both domestically and internationally.
The recent easing of U.S.-China trade tensions has further bolstered market sentiment, the ChannelCheck piece said. The two countries reached a broad agreement, with many contentious issues set to be revisited in a year. For now, the truce reduces uncertainty in global trade, allowing companies to plan production and investments with greater confidence. This temporary stability in trade relations has supported metals markets, contributing to optimism over future aluminum demand.
Producing Is Energy Intensive
Aluminum compounds, such as bauxite, are abundant in the Earth's crust. However, producing pure aluminum was once so complex and costly that it was considered a precious metal until about a century ago, Blas noted for Bloomberg. Napoleon reserved aluminum cutlery for his most esteemed guests. When the Washington Monument was completed in 1884, it was topped with a 100-ounce aluminum pyramid, as the metal was more expensive than silver at the time. Just two years later, a new refining process made aluminum more accessible.
But there's a downside. Producing aluminum is extremely energy-intensive, earning it the nickname "solid electricity." Smelters require as much electricity to produce a ton of aluminum as five German households use in a year, the article noted. Enter China. With its coal-fired power plants, China has the cheap electricity needed to produce vast quantities of aluminum. For the past 25 years, China has met the world's growing demand for aluminum, which now exceeds 100 million tons annually.
Investment fund net positioning on the London aluminum contract has shifted dramatically from neutral to strongly bullish over the past six months, according to a commentary by Andy Home for Reuters on November 6.
The collective net long position has climbed above 130,000 contracts for the first time since early 2022, when LME (London Metal Exchange) aluminum surged to a record high of US$4,073.50 per ton following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Home noted.
"Outright long positions of 198,744 contracts, equivalent to almost five million tons, are the largest collective bet on higher prices since the LME first started publishing its Commitments of Traders Report in February 2018," he wrote. "Bear bets have been cut from over 100,000 contracts in April to 68,233, accentuating the swing in net positioning."
Outright long positions, totaling 198,744 contracts and representing nearly 5 million tons, mark the largest collective wager on rising prices since the LME began publishing its Commitments of Traders Report in February 2018. Meanwhile, bearish bets have been reduced from over 100,000 contracts in April to 68,233, highlighting the significant shift in net positioning.
"Given its broad usage, demand for aluminum will grow 40% by 2030, according to the World Economic Forum," The Motley Fool reported on September 8. "Some of the factors driving that forecast include increased infrastructure spending and a drive to become more energy efficient. That forecast bodes well for aluminum stocks."
Below are two of the biggest aluminum companies in the world and one of the smallest, which also happens to be a favorite small-cap stock for billionaires. Read on to find out more about them.
Alcoa Inc.
As the company says on its website, "We invented the industry." Alcoa Inc. (AA:NYSE) was established in 1888 by Charles Martin Hall, with financial backing from Alfred E. Hunt and Arthur Vining Davis, and is one of the largest aluminum producers with a market cap of US$10.05 billion on November 11.
Streetwise Ownership Overview*
Alcoa Inc. (AA:NYSE)
*Share Structureas of 11/11/2025Prior to Alcoa's inception, refining aluminum was a challenging process, making it more costly than silver or gold. In 1886, Hall developed the Hall-H?roult process, a refining method that significantly lowered the cost of aluminum production.
In an updated research note on November 7, Analyst Vitaly Kononov of Freedom Broker noted that the stock was "Tilted towards upside. Buy rating maintained."
Although Q3 results fell short in absolute terms for the company, the core factors especially the aluminum segment's pricing power support the positive outlook. The main investment appeal lies in Alcoa's operational leverage to aluminum prices, which are bolstered by structural supply limitations and increasing demand from energy transition applications, he wrote, rating the equity a Buy with a US$40 per share price target.
Higher shipment volumes are anticipated. Q4 is expected to benefit from catch-up shipments, suggesting aluminum shipments are nearing the midpoint of the 2.5-2.6 million tonnes full-year guidance, the analyst said. Short-term volatility is likely due to Q4 earnings concentration, tariff challenges, and San Cipri?n execution risk.
"Investors should view current weakness as an accumulation opportunity ahead of anticipated 2026 market tightening," Kononov wrote.
The structural factors supporting the price floor remain unchanged, he said. Chinese production is still capped, global smelting capacity constraints persist, and inventories are low compared to historical averages. For Alcoa, prices above US$2,800 per tonne are crucial for profitability, with operations continuing to benefit shareholders even at floor levels due to current production costs and hedging strategies. The market's ability to maintain this level is supported by ongoing supply-demand tightness and China's production cap.
"The combination of LME destocking and stabilizing Chinese inventory levels despite elevated aluminum prices that typically suppress demand strongly suggests that physical market supply tightness is accelerating," the analyst said. "The maintenance of inventory levels indicates that destocking is supply-driven rather than demand-driven, meaning the market is efficiently clearing available metal despite price resistance. This dynamic supports the US$3,100 price outlook and validates forecasts for potential supply deficits in 2026."
On November 6, Alcoa announced a new initiative with other partners to use groundbreaking ELYSIS(R) carbon-free smelting technology in packaging for personal and home care products. This announcement precedes the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), a global event where leaders from government, industry, finance, and academia will convene to address climate change and explore collaborative solutions across various sectors, the company said.
This partnership marks the inaugural use of aluminum produced with ELYSIS carbon-free smelting technology an innovation that replaces direct greenhouse gas emissions from smelting with oxygen in consumer packaging for personal and home care items. The resulting aerosol can, composed of 50% ELYSIS primary aluminum and 50% post-consumer recycled content, stands as one of the lowest-carbon packaging solutions available, according to Alcoa.
The company has also paid dividends of US$0.10 per share four times in 2025.
1Less than 1% of Alcoa is owned by insiders and management, and about 80% by institutions. The rest is retail.
Top shareholders include The Vanguard Group Inc. with 9.7%, BlackRock Institutional Trust Co. with 8.25%, Eagle Capital Management LLC with 6.35%, Allan Gray Australia Pty Ltd. with 6.04%, and State Street Investment Management with 4.15%.
In addition to its US$10.05 billion market cap, it trades in a 52-week range of US$21.53 and US$47.77. The company has 258.96 million shares outstanding.
Rio Tinto Plc
Rio Tinto Plc (RIO:NYSE; RIO:ASX; RIO:LSE; RTNTF:OTCMKTS) is a British-Australian company that is the world's second-largest metals and mining corporation. Founded in 1873 when a group of investors purchased a mine complex on the R?o Tinto, in Huelva, Spain, from the Spanish government, it has grown through a long series of mergers and acquisitions.
Streetwise Ownership Overview*
Rio Tinto Plc (RIO:NYSE; RIO:ASX; RIO:LSE; RTNTF:OTCMKTS)
*Share Structureas of 11/11/2025Although primarily focused on the extraction of minerals, it also has significant operations in refining, particularly the refining of bauxite and iron ore. It has joint head offices in London and Melbourne.
According to a research report released on October 28 by Freedom Broker's Kononov, the stock is currently trading at near-term fair value after a 26% increase since June 2025, reaching a new 52-week high of US$71.42 on October 27.
While the company is implementing transformative strategic initiatives, including the US$6.7 billion acquisition of Arcadium Lithium, the first shipment from Simandou, and a restructuring into three divisions under Chief Executive Officer Simon Trott. As a result, the analyst set a conservative US$76 price target, suggesting limited downside protection given the current high valuations.
"The company simultaneously executing bold growth investments (US$13+ billion committed 2025-2027) while grappling with operational, governance, and geopolitical headwinds that will define its strategic trajectory through the energy transition," the analyst wrote.
On July 14, 2025, Rio Tinto appointed Trott following Jakob Stausholm's unexpected departure in May. A 20-year veteran of Rio who previously led the highly profitable Iron Ore division, Trott quickly initiated a major organizational overhaul, consolidating Rio Tinto from four business units into three premier product groups: iron ore, aluminum, lithium, and copper, Kononov noted.
The company has also been in the news recently as activist investor Palliser Capital is pushing it to enter the competition for Canada's Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK:TSX; TECK:NYSE), reported Jonathan Jackson for Proactive on November 3.
Reuters reported that Palliser holding an estimated US$400 million stake, or less than 1% urged Rio to consolidate its dual-listed structure and spin off a base-metals division to form a copper-focused entity, Jackson wrote. Palliser argued that acquiring Teck, which has agreed to a US$53 billion, no-premium merger with Anglo American Plc (AAUK:OTCQX; AAL:LSE), would secure a top-tier copper portfolio capable of producing 1.3 million tonnes annually, diversify Rio beyond iron ore, unlock at least US$800 million in cost synergies, and accelerate copper growth by a decade at lower risk and cost than starting new projects from scratch.
Palliser claims that Rio's current dual listing in London and Sydney makes a stock-based offer for Teck "structurally impossible," leaving only expensive or dilutive options, and insists that unification is essential for any credible deal. According to Palliser's plan, Rio would first consolidate into a single Australia-based holding company, then eventually split into two entities: a Canada-focused business centered on copper, aluminum, and zinc, and an Australia-focused iron ore company.
In response to Reuters, Rio stated that it remains committed to maximizing shareholder value and will update its strategy at its Capital Day on December 4, noting that the debate over unifying the dual listing has been thoroughly discussed and rejected by shareholders.
At the miner's 2025 annual general meeting, investors overwhelmingly voted against Palliser's proposal to review the structure; the board has previously cited tax implications and the costs of unification, arguing that a single listing is not necessary for large-scale mergers and acquisitions. Teck and Anglo shareholders are scheduled to vote on their merger on December 9.
Rio Tinto pays dividends semi-annually, with a current trailing twelve-month (TTM) dividend of about US$2.95 per share and a dividend yield of approximately 4.26% as of November 10. The latest dividend distributed was the 2025 interim dividend, amounting to US$1.48 per share, paid on September 25.
1Less than 1% of the company is owned by insiders and management, about 3% by holding companies, about 18% by strategic corporate entities, and 50% by institutions. The rest is retail.
Top shareholders include Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. with 14.55%, BlackRock Investment Management (UK) with 10.18%, Capital Research Global Investors with 4.12%, AustralianSuper with 4%, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. with 3.01%.
Its market cap is US$89.2 million with 1.25 billion shares outstanding. It trades in a 52-week range of US$51.67 and US$71.42.
Century Aluminum Co.
Somewhat smaller, but still the largest producer of primary aluminum in America, is Century Aluminum Co. (CENX:NASDAQ). The stock was recognized as No. 3 on the list of the 10 Best Small-Cap Stocks to Buy According to Billionaires, according to Insider Monkey on July 16.
Streetwise Ownership Overview*
Century Aluminum Co. (CENX:NASDAQ)
*Share Structureas of 11/11/2025The company applauded President Trump's decision to increase tariffs on imported aluminum from 25% to 50%, another piece by Insider Monkey published on Yahoo! Finance the same day.
The measure is intended to boost investment and job creation in the U.S. aluminum sector and bolster the country's domestic production of essential metals. With this backing, Century has announced plans to construct the first new aluminum smelter in the U.S. in half a century. The company also aims to double its domestic production.
Century is an integrated producer of bauxite, alumina, and primary aluminum products, with production facilities in Iceland, the Netherlands, and Jamaica.
This stock has captured attention with an impressive 84.3% increase year-to-date and a substantial 248.6% gain over the past three years, indicating strong momentum and changing market sentiment, reported Simply Wall St. on November 9.
"Recent headlines have focused on rising aluminum demand and shifts in supply chains, driven by policy changes and trends in green energy," according to the report. "These market dynamics have been crucial in driving Century Aluminum's significant rise and maintaining high investor interest."
However, shares did drop on November 11, following reports that Glencore Plc (GLEN:LSE; GLN:JSE; GLCNF:OTCMKTS) intends to divest a significant portion of its stake in the U.S.-based aluminum producer through an overnight block trade, Fiona Craig reported for InvestorsHub on MSN.com on November 11.
"Trading volume in Century Aluminum shares increased substantially on Tuesday as the market reacted to the news of the potential share sale," Investing.com reported the same day.
On November 6, the company reported its 3Q 2025 results. Net sales for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025, rose by US$4.1 million sequentially. This was somewhat offset by unfavorable volume and sales mix, as well as third-party alumina sales, the company said.
Century reported a net income attributable to its stockholders of US$14.9 million for the third quarter of 2025, marking a US$19.5 million sequential increase, Century said in the release.
The rise in net earnings during this period was mainly due to the favorable realized Midwest Premium, though it was partially offset by higher losses on derivative instruments, an unfavorable volume and sales mix, unfavorable power price realization, and increased other costs, the company said.
Century reported an adjusted net income attributable to its stockholders of US$57.9 million for the third quarter of 2025, a US$27.5 million sequential increase.
1About 44.67% of the company is owned by insiders and management, about 11.98% by mutual funds, about 0.71% by other institutional investors, about 21.52% by ETFs, and 21.12% by public companies and individual investors.
Top shareholders include Glencore International AG with 42.91%, BlackRock Institutional Trust Co. with 9.07%, The Vanguard Group Inc. with 6.25%, State Street Investment Management with 3.9%, and Dimensional Fund Advisors LP with 3.29%.
Its market cap is US$3.02 billion with 93.34 million shares outstanding. It trades in a 52-week range of US$13.05 and US$34.52.
| Want to be the first to know about interestingBase Metals investment ideas?Sign up to receive the FREE Streetwise Reports' newsletter. | Subscribe |
Important Disclosures:
As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Rio Tinto Plc.Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.For additional disclosures, please click here.
Ownership and Share Structure InformationThe information listed above was updated on the date this article was published and was compiled from information from the company and various other data providers.