(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are moderately lower in early U.S. trading Monday, as whatwill likely be a very active trading week gets under way. December gold futures were last down $4.30 an ounce at $1,228.90. December Comex silver was last down$0.131 at $14.625 an ounce.
Globalstock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly firmer andAsian shares mostly weaker. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowlymixed openings when the New York day session begins.
Expectationsfor a U.S.-China trade deal have been ratcheted down early this week, followingsome positive signs on the matter late last week. President Trump late lastweek sounded upbeat on a deal being reached soon with China. However, Trump'schief economic advisor Larry Kudlow then downplayed any imminent breakthroughon the U.S.-China trade war.
Inanother sign that China's economy is being significantly impacted by the tradewar with the U.S., a report over the weekend showed China's service sectorslowed to a 13-month low. The weakening Chinese economy is a bearish elementfor the metals markets, as China is the world's largest metals importer.
Focusin the U.S. is on Tuesday's mid-term elections, which many believe will be areferendum on the performance of President Trump. Gains by the Democrats wouldlikely be bearish for the U.S. stock market.
OnWednesday and Thursday the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetsto discuss U.S. monetary policy, with a statement due Thursday afternoon. Nochange in interest rates is expected at this meeting.
U.S.economic sanctions against Iran go into effect today, including the U.S.penalizing other countries that do business with the regime.
Thekey outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Meantime, DecemberNymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker and trading just below $63.00 abarrel.
U.S.economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. services PMI, the ISMnon-manufacturing index and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.
Technically,gold bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field.Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futuresabove solid resistance at the October high of $1,246.00. Bears' next near-termdownside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technicalsupport at $1,200.00. First resistance is seen at last week's high of $1,239.30and then at $1,246.00. First support is seen at $1,225.00 and then at $1,220.00.Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0
Decembersilver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However,recent price action suggests a market bottom is in place. Silver bulls' nextupside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technicalresistance at $15.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective forthe bears is closing prices below solid support at the September low of $13.965.First resistance is seen at $14.95 and then at $15.00. Next support is seen at $14.50and then at last week's low of $14.24. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.
By Jim WyckoffFor Kitco News
Follow @jimwyckoff