Gold Down, But Oversold And Due For Good Bounce

(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices were moderately lower in early-afternoon U.S. trading Wednesday.Gold hit a six-month low and silver dropped to a seven-week low today. However,the gold market is now well oversold on a near-term technical basis and due fora decent corrective rebound very soon. Also, the big rally in crude oilrecently is a solid clue the raw commodity sector has bottomed out and will seebetter days just ahead. Augustgold futures were last down $4.30 an ounce at$1,255.50. July Comex silver was last down $0.105 at $16.145 an ounce.

Thereare lingering concerns about a global trade war among the major economies that areweighing on the global equities markets. However, most would not consider thetrading environment as “risk-averse” at this time-at least not enough to boostsafe-haven gold and silver markets.

Thekey “outside markets” today find the U.S. dollar index solidly higher. That wasbearish for the metals today, too. However, Nymex crude oil prices are solidlyhigher, hit a three-year high, and traded above $73.00 a barrel for a while.The U.S. on Tuesday said it would have “zero tolerance” for Iran exporting itsoil to other countries.

Technically,the gold bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A2.5-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. However, the marketis now short-term oversold and due for a corrective bo0unce. Gold bulls' nextupside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solidtechnical resistance at $1,286.80. Bears' next near-term downside pricebreakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at theDecember low of $1,251.90. First resistance is seen at today’s high of$1,261.90 and then at Tuesday’s high of $1,269.40. First support is seen attoday’s low of $1,253.30 and then at $1,251.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

Thesilver bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls'next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technicalresistance at $17.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective forthe bears is closing prices below solid support at the May low of $16.07. Firstresistance is seen at today’s high of $16.295 and then at $16.50. Next supportis seen at $16.07 and then at $16.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

JulyN.Y. copper closed down 45 points at 298.75 cents today. Prices closed nearerthe session high and hit another three-month low early on on Monday. The copperbears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid the recent steep selloff. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing pricesabove solid technical resistance at 315.00 cents. The next downside priceobjective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at theMarch low of 295.85 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 300.45cents and then at this week’s high of 304.50 cents. First support is seen at295.85 cents and then at 292.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Follow @jimwyckoffjwyckoff@kitco.comwww.kitco.com Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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