Jim Bianco: Recession Is The New Bull Story On Wall Street
The Julia La Roche Show, Released on 12/22/22
In this episode, Bianco makes the case that we've entered a different market era from 2009 to 2021 and why he doesn't expect the Fed to cut rates or pivot anytime soon. He also breakdowns this paradox where for the first time, most Wall Street strategists expect a decline in the stock market in 2023, which wasn't the case during the Great Recession or after 9/11. He explains that a recession has become their bull story where the Fed will cut rates and the market will rise. Bianco also outlines how we've entered a post-pandemic economy marking the end of an era of cheap goods, labor, and energy. As such, he makes a case for why inflation won't return to 2%. Bianco notes that the market going forward will turn into a stock picker's market versus buying indexes and ETFs and relying on the Fed put. He also outlines opportunities in fixed income, what he's watching for in equities, and his thoughts on gold. Finally, Bianco weighs in on the FTX fiasco and explains why he's still a big fan of cryptocurrencies and what's needed for the space.
0:00 Macro view0:31 2023 starting off with a divergence1:10 A different era of persistent inflation2:14 Market is a liquidity junkie3:36 Paradox of wanting a recession5:01 A recession is the bull story5:35 Bianco's view on a recession7:05 What the Fed is hoping for10:35 Inflation12:41 Why we won't get back to 2%13:11 Watch what the MTA is doing with subway service14:40 Giant shift in workforce attitude15:42 China is a disaster right now18:02 Era of cheap goods, labor, and energy is over20:30 The path 2% requires killing the economy23:00 Energy27:48 What folks are missing on the China reopening story33:10 Bank of Japan expands trading band for 10-year Japanese government bonds35:58 Japan has an inflation problem37:00 There's a developed world inflation problem38:22 More implications from the BOJ's surprise move40:29 It's now a stock picker's market42:26 George Noble43:33 Fixed income is becoming interesting45:35 Equities47:00 More on fixed income50:45 Thoughts on gold52:20 GLD58:09 Thoughts on crypto in the wake of FTX/SBF1:01:01 Crypto turned into a casino1:02:48 Banking system is inherently unstable1:05:37 Impacts of FTX on the crypto industry1:11:40 Book recommendation
Jim Bianco is President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, L.L.C. Since 1990 Jim's commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. In nearly 20 years at Bianco Research, Jim's wide ranging commentaries have addressed monetary policy, the intersection of markets and politics, the role of government in the economy, fund flows and positioning in financial markets. Prior to joining Arbor and Bianco Research, Jim was a Market Strategist in equity and fixed income research at UBS Securities and Equity Technical Analyst at First Boston and Shearson Lehman Brothers. He is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and a member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA). Jim has a Bachelor of Science degree in Finance from Marquette University (1984) and an MBA from Fordham University (1989).
Jim Bianco: Recession Is The New Bull Story On Wall Street added by Herman James on 12/24/2022View all posts by Herman James ?+'