SHANGHAI, Jul 3 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.
Last night
The US dollar index rose above 95 with support from robust manufacturing data in the country.
Base metals dipped across the board on strengthened US dollar and weaker Chinese manufacturing data, except for tin. LME nickel slumped over 2.5%, zinc fell over 1%, and aluminium, copper, and lead lost nearly 1%. Last night, LME copper touched a record low in seven months on expectation of weaker Chinese demand.
China's Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 51, slightly lower from 51.1 in May as new export sales fell for the third consecutive month on sluggish overseas demand.
The Caixin index for new export orders fell to its lowest level this year and was in contraction territory, "pointing to a grim export situation amid escalating trade disputes between China and the US", according to Zhong Zhengsheng, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group, a Caixin subsidiary.
"[The PMI] pointed to strengthening price pressures in June. Deteriorating exports and weak employment, along with companies' destocking and poor capital turnover, put pressure on the manufacturing sector," Zhong added.
Germany's Markit manufacturing PMI came in at 55.9 in June, a record low in 18 months. This compared with May’s 56.9.
"The question is whether there is worse still to come," according to Phil Smith, principal economist at IHS Markit. "Firms have indeed become less optimistic in their expectations toward output, with tariffs seen as an added headwind to growth in the months ahead."
The eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI also hit the lowest in 18 months and stood at 54.9, down from the expected 55 and May’s 55.5. It marked the sixth consecutive month of decrease, with eurozone businesses worried about the impact of tariffs on their exports.
"The survey reveals mounting worries from companies relating to the impact of tariffs and trade wars, suggesting firms are bracing themselves for the potential for further export losses. Not surprisingly, business expectations for future production deteriorated in June to the lowest since November 2015," according to Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.
The US Markit manufacturing PMI In June went higher from the expectation to register at 55.4. Its manufacturing index surveyed by Institute for Supply Management (ISM) surged to 60.2, the second highest since 2004, up from the expected 58.5 and 58.7 seen the previous month.
Day ahead
Key factors to watch today include the eurozone retail sales data, the US durable goods orders and factory orders in May.