SHANGHAI, Mar 29 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.
Last night
The US dollar index rose to 90 given the inflow of month-end capital and as concerns of a trade war eased. Positive economic data from the US released overnight also buoyed the index.
Base metals saw mixed trading as SHFE metals, except for copper and lead, fell. LME aluminium dropped close to 1% to a three-month low in anticipation of production cuts in China and as the dollar climbed. LME copper dipped as inventory remained high.
The US gross domestic product (GDP) grew an annualised 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2017, better than the expected 2.7%. The largest gain in consumer spending in three years offset the drag from a surge in imports.
The fourth-quarter personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew at an annualised 4% in 2017, better than the expected and the previous figure of 3.8%. The core PCE price index expanded at an annualised 1.9%, in line with the forecast.
Preliminary US wholesale inventories in February jumped 1.1% month on month.
The US pending home sales index in February registered the first gain in three months as it grew 3.1% month on month. Year on year, the index declined 4.4%.
Inventories of US crude oil during the week ended March 23 rose by 1.64 million barrels, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.
Day ahead
The annualised US PCE price index in February is forecast to be 1.7, unchanged from a month ago, the core price index is forecast to be 1.6, slightly higher than a month ago.
The monthly rate of personal spending in February was expected to be 0.2, flat from a month ago.
US initial claims for unemployment benefits over the week ended on March 24 was expected to remain low at 230,000, suggesting an upbeat momentum in the labour market.
The final Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in March is another factor to watch today. The expected figure is 102, flat from the preliminary figure.
The US dollar hovered around 90 overnight. We expect it to stay rangebound in the short term.
Base metals were weak, and are likely to remain rangebound in the short term.
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