SHANGHAI, Mar 22 (SMM) – China's aluminium industry is likely to take a greater hit than the steel industry as a result of the US' recent tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, said director and top economist at the Rushi Advanced Institute of Finance, Guan Qingyou.
Chinese aluminium accounted for 16.6% of US aluminium imports while Chinese steel accounted for just under 2% of US steel imports.
Discussing the global economy at the SMM Copper Aluminium Summit on Thursday March 22, Guan believed that President Donald Trump’s tough stance on trade was a political move in the lead-up to the mid-term elections on November 6. Current global trade tension is unlikely to hamper the growth in trade but will add to uncertainty in the future.
Guan also sees limited upward room for commodities. He also expects China’s producer price index (PPI) to weaken, and the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) to edge down this year.
China’s property market will be buoyed by the growth of land purchases in 2017 and high operating rates in 2018. However, as financing tightens, property enterprises will face cash flow issues. Costs of land purchases will decrease as a weaker PPI weigh on prices and as the amount of land for lease increases, he added.
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