SMM Morning Comments (Jan 5)

SHANGHAI, Jan 5 (SMM)? 1/4 ?

Copper: LME copper prices remained rather firm with a support at the 10-day moving average. It is possible that prices would resume the upward movement and we expect the contract to trade at $7,160-7,210/mt today. The SHFE 1803 copper, on the other hand, is forecast to trade at 54,600-55,100 yuan/mt today while we see decent physical restocking demand.

Aluminium: LME aluminium is more in a downward trend and is expected to trade between the five-day and 10-day moving averages today at $2,215-2,255/mt. However, the momentum in LME copper may also affect aluminium price movement. SHFE aluminium is expected to trade just below the five-day moving average at 15,050-15,220 yuan/mt, with spot discount at 300-260 yuan/mt.

Nickel: Nickel prices remained high but there is room for downstream demand to improve. LME nickel is expected to rangebound today while the main contract SHFE nickel is to trade at 97,800-99,300 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 97,200-98,500 yuan/mt today.

Zinc: LME zinc set new 10-year high again with low inventory and funds’ chasing. We expect the contract to trade at $3,325-3,375/mt today. Performance at SHFE zinc, however, remained lacklustre compared with its western counterpart due to more balanced fundamentals. It is expected to test support at the 26,000 yuan/mt level, trading at 25,750-26,200 yuan/mt.

Lead: Lead price is expected to stay in a narrow range while a greater momentum is needed for any upward movement.

Tin: LME tin hit a snag in moving up and is likely to be rangebound with support at $19,700/mt. SHFE tin also slipped last night to around the five-day moving average and it is expected to trade at 144,000-145,500 yuan/mt today. On the spot market, the price is to move at 142,000-144,500 yuan/mt with support from smelters.

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