Strong November Sales Kick Off Season

RAPAPORT... US retail sales rose in November as consumer sentiment was strong at the start of the holiday season, the National Retail Federation (NRF)said. Total purchases for November - excluding automobiles, gasoline andrestaurants - rose 0.1% compared to the previous month, according todata the NRF published Friday. Sales climbed 2.1% year on year for the month, particularly impressive given the sharp growth in the same period ayear ago, when sales were up by an unusually strong 4.7%, NRF chief economist JackKleinhenz explained. "November showed modest growth on the surface, but you haveto remember that the late timing of Thanksgiving delayed the beginning of thebusiest portion of the holiday season and pushed Cyber Monday's billions ofdollars of retail sales into December," he said. Consumer spending has been solid, backed by robust sentiment, Kleinhenz added, noting that US retail was on track for a strongholiday season this year. December sales will likely improve on last year's 0.2% drop as the late timing of Thanksgiving means a large proportion of transactions will occur during the month, he projected. Imports at the US's major retail container ports jumped anestimated 8% year on year in November, as retailers stocked up ahead of thelast round of scheduled tariffs, which were scheduled to take effect December15. However, the December tariffs may be called off, as the Trumpadministration announced last week it had reached the first phase of a tradedeal with China. "For the first time in months, the US and China are movingin the right direction on tariffs," said David French, NRF senior vice president forgovernment relations. "Tariffs create uncertainty and costs forAmerican retail supply chains, and the trade war won't be over until they areeliminated completely." Despite the impending levies, the NRF predicted total retailsales for the two-month November-to-December holiday period would grow 3.8% to4.2% to between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion. Image: A US mall at Christmastime. (Shutterstock)