Tech Talk for Monday April 15th 2024

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 40 points at 8:35 AM EDT despite Iran's missile attack on Israel over the weekend.

Index futures gained 9 points following release of March U.S. Retail Sales at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase of 0.3% versus a revised gain of 0.9% in February. Actual was an increase of 0.7%. Excluding auto sales, consensus for March U.S. Retail Sales was an increase of 0.4% versus a revised gain of 0.6% in February. Actual was a gain of 0.6%.

Lockheed Martin gained $7.27 to $458.22 after JP Morgan upgraded the stock from Neutral to Overweight.

Goldman Sachs added $9.51 to $399.00 after reporting higher than consensus quarterly results.

Cisco added $1.11 to $49.60 after Bank of America upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy.

Target price was raised to $60.00.

Tesla dropped $1.95 to $169.10 on reports that the company expects to reduce its employee count by 10%.

The Bottom Line

The attack by Iran on Israel on Saturday is a "Black Swan event" that is expected to have a significant negative impact on world equity markets when they open on Monday.

U.S. equity markets were "off to a rough start" last week following initial releases of first quarter results by major companies: Notably weaker following release of quarterly results included Blackrock, Fastenal, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Weakness was recorded despite reports that revenue and earnings gains exceeded consensus.

Trigger for weakness was the March Consumer Price report released last Wednesday. CPI was "hotter" than expected, implying an extension of tight monetary policy by the Federal Reserve beyond the next FOMC meeting on June 12th

Commodity prices and their related stocks continued to move strongly higher. Strength was notable last week in agricultural (DBA), Base metal (DBB) and precious metals (GLD) ETNs

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 Companies

Source: www.FactSet.com

Analysts significantly reduced earnings estimates for the first quarter of 2024. Consensus on a year-over-year basis calls for an earnings increase of 0.9% (versus a 3.2% increase last week). Revenues are expected to increase 3.4% (versus a 3.5% increase last week).

Earnings gains accelerate in the second and third quarters. Consensus for the second quarter calls for a 9.4% earnings increase and a 4.6% increase in revenues (versus a 4.7% increase last week). Consensus for the third quarter calls for an 8.6% increase in earnings (versus previous 8.5% increase) and a 5.1% increase in revenues (versus a previous 5.2% increase).

Earnings gains accelerate in the fourth quarter. Consensus for the fourth quarter calls for a 17.7% increase in earnings (versus previous 17.5% increase) and a 5.8% increase in revenues.

For all of 2024, consensus calls for a 10.3% earnings increase (versus previous 10.9% increase) and a 4.8% increase in revenues (versus previous 5.1% increase)

Estimates for fiscal 2025 were raised slightly. Consensus calls for a 14.0% earnings increase (versus previous 13.4% increase) and a 5.9% revenue increase.

Economic News This Week

Source: www.Investing.com

March U.S. Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.6% in February. Excluding auto sales, March Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.3% in February.

April Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EDT on Monday is expected to recover to -9.00 from -20.90 in March.

February Business Inventories released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday are expected to increase 0.3% versus unchanged in January.

March U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to drop to 1.480 million units from 1.521 million units in February.

March Canadian Consumer Price Index is released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday.

March U.S. Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase to 78.5% from 78.3% in February.

Beige Book is released at 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday.

April Philly Fed is released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday

March U.S. Existing Home Sales released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to slip to 4.20 million units from 4.38 million units in February.

March U.S. Leading Economic Indicators are released at 10:00 AM EDT on Thursday

Selected Earnings News This Week

Source: www.Investing.com

Six percent of S&P 500 companies have reported first quarter results to date. Another 44 companies are scheduled to release results this week. Focus is on reports by major banks:

No TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report.

Trader's Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 12th 2024

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for April 12th 2024

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 12th 2024

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Technical Scores

Calculated as follows:

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2

          (Higher highs and higher lows)

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0

          (Not up or down)

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2

          (Lower highs and lower lows)

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score -2

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0

Below 20 day moving average: -1

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1

Mixed momentum indicators: 0

Down trending momentum indicators: -1

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower

Changes Last Week

Technical Notes for Friday

Silver Miners ETF $SIL moved above $33.04 to a two year high extending an intermediate uptrend

Junior Gold Miners ETF $GDXJ moved above $43.57 extending an intermediate uptrend.

Agnico-Eagle $AEM a TSX 60 stock moved above US$62.87 extending an intermediate uptrend.

Wheaton Precious Metals $WPM.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$73.24 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

Oil and Gas Exploration SPDRs $XOP moved above $161.65 to a nine year high extending an intermediate uptrend.

Consumer Discretionary SPDRs moved below $177.18 completing a double top pattern.

Biotech ETF $BBH moved below $158.16 setting an intermediate downtrend.

Hong Kong iShares $EWH moved below $15.19 to an 8 year low extending an intermediate downtrend.

S&P 100 stocks moving below intermediate support included Medtronic on a moved below $81.23,

Intuit on a move below $620.17, UnitedHealth Group on a move below $438.90 and $438.56 and Abbott Laboratories on a move below $108.57, Coca Cola on a move below $58.50 and $58.19, Union Pacific on a move below $233.27, Microchip Technology on a moved below $85.80 and Texas Instruments on a move below $165.98.

Cameco $CCJ a TSX 60 stock moved above US$51.33 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

Links offered by valued providers

Michael Campbell's Money Talk for April 13th

Michael Campbell's MoneyTalks - Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)

The stock market now is in correction mode: Mark Leibovit

https://www.howestreet.com/2024/04/is-the-stock-market-now-in-correction-mode-mark-leibovit/

S&P 500 Flashes Major Topping Signals: David Keller

S&P 500 Flashes Major Topping Signals | The Mindful Investor | StockCharts.com

From Relic To Reckoning: Can Gold Surge To $3,000? Karl Montevirgen

From Relic To Reckoning: Can Gold Surge To $3,000? | ChartWatchers | StockCharts.com

2023 Q4 Earnings Analysis and Projections through 2024 Q4: Carl Swenlin

2023 Q4 Earnings Analysis and Projections Through 2024 Q4 | DecisionPoint | StockCharts.com

Time to sell everything?: Mary Ellen McGonagle

Time To SELL EVERYTHING?! - YouTube

What is the Best Way to Measure "Value" of Gold? Bob Hoye

What is the Best Way to Measure "Value" of Gold? - HoweStreet

Trading Desk Notes For April 13, 2024: Victor Adair

Trading Desk Notes For April 13, 2024 - HoweStreet

Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com

https://enrichedinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Precious-record-shaky-stocks-war- notch-cut-question-booming-commodities-energetic-domination.pdf

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 13.80 on Friday and plunged 28.40 last week to 44.40.

It changed from Overbought (i.e. above 60.00) to Neutral on a move below 60.00. Daily trend is down.

The long term Barometer dropped 4.00 on Friday and 6.80 last week to 71.80. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometers dropped 6.70 on Friday and plunged 12.95 last week to 53.57. It changed from Overbought to Neutral on a drop below 60.00. Daily trend is down.

The long term Barometer dropped 3.57 on Friday and 3.57 last week to 67.86. It remains Overbought. Daily trend is down.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed