Tech Talk for Monday February 3rd 2025

U.S. equity index futures are sharply lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 92 points at 8:30 AM EST. Index futures around the world moved lower following President Trump's announcement on tariffs that will hit U.S. imports starting tomorrow.

The Canadian Dollar plunged 0.63 to US68.14 cents following the tariff news. It fell in overnight news to a 22 year low at US68.50 cents before recovering.

Ford dropped $0.42 to $9.66 and General Motors plunged $3.48 to $45.98 following the tariff news. The U.S. auto industry's supply chain is expected to be disrupted by tariffs.

EquityClock's Stock Market Outlook for February 3rd

Performance of the equity market during the month of February is typically lacklustre with the S&P 500 Index averaging a gain of a mere 0.1%, on average, over the past five decades. See:

https://equityclock.com/2025/02/01/stock-market-outlook-for-february-3-2025/

Technical Scoop for February 3rd by David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com See:

https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/

The Bottom Line

Fourth quarter results released to date by S&P 500 companies have been impressive. They prompted analysts to raise their consensus fourth quarter earnings estimate for the S&P 500. On the other hand, analyst also lowered their consensus S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2025. Robust earnings growth is expected in 2025, but at a slightly lower rate.

Earnings focuses this week are on Meta on Tuesday and Amazon on Thursday

After the close on Friday, President Trump confirmed that a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports into the U.S. initially will become effective on February 1st. Full implementation and impact on equity markets have yet to be determined.

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies

Source: www.factset.com

Fourth quarter results released last week were encouraging: 36% of S&P 500 companies have reported results to date: 77% have reported higher than consensus quarterly earnings and 63% have reported higher than consensus quarterly revenues. Better than consensus fourth quarter earnings prompted analysts to raise their fourth quarter S&P 500 earnings estimate to a 13.2% year-over-year increase, up from a 12.7% increase last week. Also, consensus for revenue gains increased to 4.8%, up from a 4.6% increase last week.

For all of 2024, consensus calls for a 9.4% earnings increase and a 5.1% revenue increase.

Analyst estimates for earnings and revenue gains for 2025 were lowered slightly last week. Consensus for first quarter earnings called for a 10.1 % increase on a year-over-year basis, down from an 11.3% increase last week. Consensus for first quarter revenues slipped to a 4.8% increase down from the previous 5.0% increase. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains dropped to 10.9% from an 11.6% increase last week and consensus for second quarter revenues was lowered to a 4.8% increase from a 5.0% increase. Consensus for third quarter earnings dropped to a 14.9% increase, down from a 15.3% increase last week. Consensus for third quarter revenues dropped to a 5.5% increase, down from a previous 5.6% increase last week. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 16.1%, down from a previous 16.6% increase. Fourth quarter revenues are expected to increase 6.4%, down from 6.7% last week.

For all of 2025 earnings are expected to increase 14.3%, down from 14.8% last week and revenues are expected to increase 5.7%, down from a 5.9% gain last week.

Above average earnings gains are expected to continue into 2026, albeit at a slightly lower rate than consensus for the second half of 2025. Consensus calls for a 13.7% earnings increase, up from 13.6% last week. and a 6.4% Consensus for revenue gains .remains at 6.4%.

Economic News This Week

December U.S. Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday is expected to increase 0.3% versus no change in November.

January ISM Manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday is expected to improve to 49.3 from 49.2 in December.

December U.S. Factory Orders released at 10:00 AM EST on Tuesday are expected to drop -.7% versus a 0.4% decline in November.

December U.S. Trade Deficit released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase to $97.10 billion from $78.20 billion in November.

December Canadian Trade Balance released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to be a $400 million surplus versus a $320,000 deficit in November.

January ISM Non-manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase to 54.2 from 54.1 in December.

January U.S. Non-farm Employment Report is released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday.

January Canadian Employment is released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday

February Michigan Consumer Sentiment is released at 10:00 AM

Selected Earnings News This Week

Trader's Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for January 31st 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for January 31st 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for January 31st 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Changes last week

Technical Notes for Friday

Australia All Ordinaries Index $AORD moved above 8,771.30 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

Platinum ETN $PPLT moved above $88.59 extending an intermediate uptrend.

Links offered by valued providers

Michael Campbell's Money Talks for February 1st

Michael Campbell's MoneyTalks - Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)

TRUMP TARIFF WAR VS. CANADA ABOUT TO START: Mark Leibovit

Trump Tariff War vs Canada About to Start - HoweStreet

Key Fed measure shows core inflation at 2.8%, in line with expectations: Rick Santelli

Key Fed measure shows core inflation at 2.8%, in line with expectations - YouTube

We’re in the midst of an ABC corrective wave, says Fairlead Strategies’ Katie Stockton

We’re in the midst of an ABC corrective wave, says Fairlead Strategies’ Katie Stockton - YouTube

Apple is a low growth stock with a high multiple, says Dan Niles

Apple is a low growth stock with a high multiple, says Dan Niles - YouTube

SPX Made Up "Lots of Ground," Stay Wary of Tariff Volatility

SPX Made Up "Lots of Ground," Stay Wary of Tariff Volatility - YouTube

Mike Wilson on Earnings, Fed, Tech Stocks

Mike Wilson on Earnings, Fed, Tech Stocks - YouTube

Contrarian Market Economist David Rosenberg on Rethinking His "Bubble" Thesis but Staying Bearish

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XK09ousjJFk

Jay Hatfield on His Year-End Forecast SPX 7000, Fed Rate Cuts, and Magnificent 7 Earnings

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iu2fHwnWl4M

DeepSeek Rattles AI Stocks – Should You Buy The Dip?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRSGIb9kJic

Trading Desk Notes for February 1st : Victor Adair

https://victoradair.ca/trading-desk-notes-for-february-1-2025/

Will Gold Replace USD as World Reserve Currency? Bob Hoye

https://www.howestreet.com/2025/01/will-gold-replace-usd-as-world-reserve-currency-bob-hoye/

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 5.80 on Friday and slipped 0.60 last week. After briefly moving above 60.00 to Overbought, it returned to Neutral at the end of the week.

The long term Barometer dropped 2.00 on Friday, but gained 0.20 last week. It remains Overbought.

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 8.56 on Friday and 13.06 last week to 38.74. It changed on Friday from Neutral to Oversold on a move below 40.00.

The long term Barometer dropped 6.31 on Friday and dropped 4.06 last week to 62.16. It remains Overbought.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed