Tech Talk for Monday November 11th 2024
All-time highs were recorded by broadly based U.S. equity indices following the election of Donald Trump as President. On Friday, the S&P 500 Index exceeded the 6,000 level and the Dow Jones Industrial Average exceeded 44,000.
U.S. equity index futures are tracking their historic seasonal pattern following a U.S. Presidential election once a definite result has been determined. Historically, strength in indices has extended until the first week in January when specific plans proposed by the next President are revealed.
Anticipation of strong and accelerating year-over-year earnings gains in the fourth quarter by S&P 500 companies also will help share prices between now and early January.
Note that activity on North American equity markets on Monday is expected to be significantly lower than average due to a bank holiday.
Consensus for Earnings and Revenues by S&P 500 companies
Source: www.factset.com
Frequency of third quarter corporate reports is winding down. Ninety one percent (455 companies) have reported to date. Results released to date have prompted analysts to raise their earnings estimates slightly. Consensus calls for a 5.3% year-over-year earnings increase (up from 5.1% last week) and a 4.8% year-over-year revenue increase (down from 4.9% last week).
Earnings and revenue gains accelerate in the fourth quarter, but at a slightly lower rate. Consensus calls for a 12.2% earnings increase (down from a 12.7% increase last week) and a 4.8% revenue increase.
For all of 2024, consensus calls for a 9.4% earnings increase (up from 9.3% last week) and 5.1% revenue increase (up from 5.0% last week)
Consensus for earnings gains in 2025 remains elevated, but at a slightly lower rate. First quarter earnings are expected to increase 12.7 % on a year-over-year basis (versus a 13.0% increase last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.3%. Second quarter earnings are expected to increase 11.9% (versus a 12.2% gain last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.5%. For all of 2025 earnings are expected to increase 14.8% (versus a 15.1% increase last week) and revenues are expected to increase 5.7%.
Economic News This Week
October U.S. Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in September. Excluding food and energy, October CPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.3% gain in September.
October U.S. Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase 0.2% versus no changed in September
November Empire State Manufacturing Survey is released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday.
October U.S. Retail Sales are released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday.
October U.S. Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EST on Friday is expected to slip to77.1% from 77.5% in September. October Industrial Production is expected to drop 0.4% versus a 0.3% decline in September.
September Business Inventories are released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday.
Selected Earnings News This Week
Another 12 S&P 500 companies (including three Dow Jones Industrial Average companies: Home Depot, Cisco and Walt Disney) are scheduled to release quarterly results. In Canada, three TSX 60 companies are expected to release results: Shopify, Suncor and Brookfield.
Trader's Corner
Equity Indices and Related ETFs
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for November 7th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for November 8th 2024
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Changes Last Week
Technical Notes
Salesforce.com $CRM a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $317.31 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
UnitedHealth Group $UNH a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $608.61 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Costco $COST an S&P 100 stock moved above $922.60 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Tesla $TSLA a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $299.29 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Intuit $INTU an S&P 100 stock moved above $674.55 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Vertex $VRTX a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $510.64 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend
Links offered by valued providers
Michael Campbell's Money Talks for November 9th 2024
Michael Campbell's MoneyTalks - Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)
How You Can Still Capitalize On This 2024 Bull Market – Buy This Now! Brian Belski
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGRs03IyO5A
Small caps could outperform by more than 100% in the next few years, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee
What’s Ahead After Pivotal Election, Fed Meeting Week: Schwab Network
What’s Ahead After Pivotal Election, Fed Meeting Week - YouTube
Weekly Update with Larry Berman – November 9, 2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQddWKkwGHM
Still room for junior miners to enjoy gold boom: Bob Hoye
Still Room for Junior Miners to Enjoy Gold Boom - HoweStreet
Fed Rate Cuts Not Lowering US Mortgage Rates: Mark Leibovit
Fed Rate Cuts Not Lowering US Mortgage Rates - HoweStreet
Trading Desk Notes for November 9, 2024: Victor Adair
Trading Desk Notes for November 9, 2024 - HoweStreet
US & China Energy Consumption Falls. We See WTI Declining Below US$68/b In The Coming Weeks: Josef Schachter
Sectors Expected to do Well Under Trump: Sean Brodrick
Sectors Expected to do Well Under Trump - HoweStreet
Technical Scoop for Monday November 11th from David Chapman and www.enrichedinvesting.com
https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/
S&P 500 Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer added 0.80 on Friday and jumped 16.20 last week to 65.40. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00. Daily trend is up.
The long term Barometer added 0.20 on Friday and gained 4.80 last week to 74.60. It remains Overbought
TSX Momentum Barometers
The intermediate term Barometer dropped 4.98 on Friday, but gained 7.04 last week to 63.35. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00.
The long term Barometer added 0.45 on Friday and gained 3.50 last week to 76.47. It remains Overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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