Tech Talk for Tuesday December 16th 2025

U.S. Index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 3 points at 8:35 AM EST.

S&P 500 futures added 9 points following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for November Non-farm Payrolls was 45,000 versus 119,000 in October. Actual was 64,000. Consensus for November Unemployment Rate was an increase to 4.5% from 4.4% in October. Actual was an increase to 4.6%. Consensus for October Retail Sales was a 0.1% gain versus a 0.2% gain in September. Actual was unchanged.

Commerce Bank set its S&P 500 target for 2026 at 7,450.

Ford gained $1.10 to $13.80 despite announcing a $19.5 billion special charge. The company also offered positive guidance based on a change in direction from electronic vehicle production to hybrid production.

PayPal added $0.66 to $61.40 after applying for establishment of a bank subsidiary.

EquityClock's Market Outlook for December 16th

Positioning for the seasonally strong back half of December for stocks. See:

https://equityclock.com/2025/12/15/stock-market-outlook-for-december-16-2025/

Technical Notes

Consumer Discretionary SPDRs (XLY) moved above $121.50 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

U.S. Insurance iShares (IAK) moved above $138.08 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

Japan iShares (EWJ) moved above $84.54 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable until January 31st. See seasonality chart at www.EquityClock.com

BMO Equal Weight Canadian Equal Weight Oil ETF (ZEO.TO) moved below Cdn$80.94 completing a double top pattern.

S&P 100 and NASDAQ 100 stocks breaking resistance extending intermediate uptrends included MetLife (MET) on a move above $83.04, Tesla on a move above $474.07, Raytheon Technologies (RTX), Cintas (CTAS) on a move above $189.23, Philip Morris International (PM) on a move above $158.23, Airbnb (ABNB) on a move above $131.11 and Marriott International on a move above $309.42. Seasonal influences currently are favourable for MetLife, Raytheon Technologies, Philip Morris International and Marriott International. See seasonality charts at www.EquityClock.com

Trader's Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for December 15th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for December 15th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for December 15th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Links offered by valued providers

Is This Rally for Real? Here’s What the Charts Are Saying: Mary Ellen McGonagle

Is This Rally for Real? Here’s What the Charts Are Saying - YouTube

Wall Street… We Gotta Problem! Tom Bowley

Wall Street… We Gotta Problem! - YouTube

Seasonality Myths vs Reality: Jeff Hirsch's 2026 Outlook (Stock Trader's Almanac)

Seasonality Myths vs Reality: Jeff Hirsch's 2026 Outlook (Stock Trader's Almanac) - YouTube

Sosnoff: After this week, the market comes back to earth: Tom Sosnoff

Sosnoff: After this week, the market comes back to earth - YouTube

Tom Lee on 2026: Why the First Half May Be Tough

Tom Lee on 2026: Why the First Half May Be Tough - YouTube

AI Stocks Fall Under Pressure Again: Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Carter Worth

AI Stocks Fall Under Pressure Again - YouTube

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer added 1.60 to 61.20. It changed from Neutral to Overbought on a move above 60.00.

The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.20 to 63.20. It remains Overbought.

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 2.37 to 63.98. It remains Overbought.

The long term Barometer added 0.47 to 81.52. It remains Overbought.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed