Tech Talk for Friday October 3rd 2025

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 7 points at 8:30 AM EDT.

The U.S. September Non-farm Payrolls report scheduled for release at 8:30 AM EDT has been postponed due to shutdown of U.S. Federal Government services.

Applied Materials dropped $7.69 to $215.90 after noting that it expects a $710 million hit to fourth quarter revenues triggered by new export restrictions.

EquityClock's Market Outlook for October 3rd

The seasonal trade in Natural Gas continues to become more enticing as the days progress.

See:

https://equityclock.com/2025/10/02/stock-market-outlook-for-october-3-2025/

Technical Notes

Alcoa (AA) moved above $34.25 extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable until December 29th. See Seasonality chart at www.equityclock.com

Marvell Technology (MRVL) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $85.27 resuming an intermediate uptrend.

Ross Stores (ROST) a NASDAQ 100 stock moved above $154.72 resuming an intermediate uptend. Seasonal influences are favourable until January 10th. See seasonality chart at www.equityclock.com

Travelers (TRV) a Dow Jones Industrial Average stock moved above $279.99 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. Seasonal influences are favourable on a real and relative basis until November 11th. See seasonality chart at www.equtiyclock.com

Comcast (CMCSA) an S&P 100 stock moved below $30.70 extending an intermediate uptrend

U.S. Crude Oil ETN (USO) moved below $71.56 extending an intermediate downtrend.

Trader's Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for October 2nd 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for October 2nd 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for October 2nd 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Links offered by valued providers

10 Stocks Set to Soar in October 2025: Tom Bowley

10 Stocks Set to Soar in October 2025 - YouTube

What Happens To Markets During A Shutdown? Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Liz Thomas

What Happens To Markets During A Shutdown? - YouTube

Market Call: Colin Cieszynski’s outlook on Technical Analysis

Market Call: Colin Cieszynski’s outlook on Technical Analysis - YouTube

Wolf on Bay Street

Don Vialoux is a guest on "Wolf on Bay Street" to be released on Saturday at 7:00 PM EDT on Corus Radio 640. Following are notes developed prior to the interview:

Notes for Wolf and Jack (October 2nd 2025)

Historically, U.S. and Canadian equity markets have their strongest seasonal period of the year from the fourth week in October to the first week in January. Look for history to repeat this year (although strength could be delayed this year until well into the fourth quarter due to tariff concerns)

Earnings growth by major U.S. and Canadian manufacturing companies in the third and fourth quarters of this year is expected to weaken due to pre-buying prior to launch of tariffs in the first half of 2025. Consensus calls earnings growth for S&P 500 companies to drop from 11.5% in the second quarter to 7.9% in the third quarter and 7.4% in the fourth quarter. Earnings gains accelerate thereafter: 11.7% in the first quarter of 2026 and 12.7% in the second quarter. For all of 2026, consensus calls for earnings growth at 13.8%.

Revenues and earnings gains by Canadian manufacturing companies are expected to be particularly hard hit in the second half of 2025 due to tariffs. Government assistance partially will help to offset the impact.

Canada's strongest sectors in the second half of 2025 are related to commodity prices: Prices of gold, silver, platinum, palladium and copper are at or near all-time highs. Profit margins by producers will expand significantly.

Canada's forest product industry is expected to be particularly hard hit by higher tariffs announced by Trump last week. Not surprising, this sector dropped to a 5 year low last week.

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer slipped 0.20 to 57.80. It remains Neutral.

The long term Barometer slipped 0.60 to 66.40. It remains Overbought.

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer added 0.47 to 75.12. It remains Overbought.

The long term Barometer added 0.94 to 87.32, highest level since December 2020. It remains Overbought. Daily uptrend was extended.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed