Tech Talk for Monday April 14th 2025

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 78 points at 8:30 AM EDT.

Index futures responded to news that tariffs on semiconductors and iPhones are temporarily exempt. Apple gained $11.27 to $209.42. NVidia added $3.47 to $114.40.

Comcast dropped $0.33 to $33.39 after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock from Equal Weight to Underweight.

EquityClock's Market Outlook for April 14th

The US Dollar Index is back to significant multi-year support in what has been a confounding move amidst this tariff war. See:

https://equityclock.com/2025/04/12/stock-market-outlook-for-april-14-2025/

Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com

https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/

The Bottom Line

Wild week for world markets! World equity indices moved higher (S&P 500 up 10.8% from its low on Monday), commodity prices in U.S. Dollars soared (GSG up 6.3% from its low on Wednesday) and the U.S. Dollar Index moved lower (down 4.49% from its high on Monday to its low on Friday). However, the prices of U.S. Treasury notes dropped 5.20% from their high on April 4th to its low on Friday possibly due to Chinese selling. What is wrong with this picture?

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies

Source: www.factset.com

Analyst estimates for earnings gains for the later part of 2025 recorded more declines last week. Estimates for revenue gains were slightly changed. Consensus for first quarter earnings calls for a 7.3 % increase on a year-over-year basis, unchanged from last week. . Consensus for first quarter revenues growth increased to 4.3% from 4.2%. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains dropped to 8.2% from 9.1% last week. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains slipped to 4.5% from 4.6%. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains dropped to 10.8% from 11.7% last week. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth slipped to 5.3% from 5.4%. Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains dropped to 10.3% from 11.2% last week. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue gains slipped to 5.9% from 6.0%.

For all of 2025, earnings are expected to increase 10.6%, down from an 11.3% increase last week. Consensus for revenue gains slipped to 5.3% from 5.4%.

For all of 2026, earnings are expected to increase 14.2% and revenues are expected to increase 6.5%.

Economic News This Week

April Empire State Manufacturing Survey released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase to -14.80 from -20.00 in March.

Canada's March Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.7% versus a 1.1% gain in February.

March U.S. Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase 1.3% versus a 0.2% gain in February. Ex auto sales, March Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.4% versus 0.3% in February.

March U.S. Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to slip to 78.0% from 78.2 in February. March Industrial Production is expected to drop 0.2% versus a 0.7% gain in February.

Bank of Canada's interest rate decision released at 9:45 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to maintain the 2.75% rate charged to major banks. Press conference is scheduled at 10:30 AM EDT.

February U.S. Business Inventories released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.3% gain in January.

March U.S. Housing Starts released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to drop to 1.420 million from 1.501 million units in February.

April Philly Fed Manufacturing Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to drop to 3.1 from 12.5 in March.

Selected Earnings News This Week

Another 32 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report quarterly results this week (including six Dow Jones Industrial Average companies). Focuses early this week are on first quarter results released by more money center banks: Results released by money center banks of Friday were impressive, significantly beating consensus estimates.

No TSX 60 companies are scheduled to release quarterly results this week.

Trader's Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 11th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for April 11th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 11th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Technical Notes for Friday

The U.S. Dollar Index moved below 100.16 and 99.58 to a three year low setting a long term downtrend. Conversely, the Canadian Dollar broke above US70.80 cents completing a double bottom pattern.

Commodity iShares (GSG) gained 6.14% from its low on Wednesday to its close on Friday. Responded to US Dollar weakness!

Changes last week

Links offered by valued providers

Michael Campbell's Money Talks for April 12th

Michael Campbell's MoneyTalks - Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)

Markets - Some See Red, Others See Opportunity: Mark Leibovit

Markets - Some See Red, Others See Opportunity - HoweStreet

Wild Market Swings: Is This Hidden Accumulation by Market Makers? Tom Bowley

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRe7m5MRscs

"It’s The Scariest Time That I’ve Ever Seen" – Dan Ives on Tariffs, The Mag7 & U.S. Tech Leadership

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3iG_tSoAtYQ

Earnings From These 3 Stocks Could Be Key: Jay Wood

Earnings From These 3 Stocks Could Be Key | A View From The Floor | StockCharts.com

Weekly Update with Larry Berman – April 12, 2025

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peDGyMSxUjA

CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 4/11/25

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hyX2eN-Dco

Climactic Sell-off For The General Stock Market Nearly Over. Energy Stocks At Bargain Levels. BUY!!! Josef Schachter

Climactic Sell-off For The General Stock Market Nearly Over. Energy Stocks At Bargain Levels. BUY!!!

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer added 5.60 on Friday and 7.40 last week to 20.40. It remains Oversold. Daily trend has turned up.

The long term Barometer added 2.00 on Friday and 5.40 last week to 28.80. It remains Oversold, Daily trend has turned up.

Short term (20 days) Barometer added 9.80 on Friday and jumped 18.80 last week to 20.80

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer added 8.26 on Friday and 6.42 last week to 29.36. It remains Oversold. Daily trend is up.

The long term Barometer added 5.50 to 36.70 on Friday and 2.30 last week. It remains Oversold.

Short term (20 days) Barometer added 9.63 on Friday and 11.01 last week to 22.02.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.