Tech Talk for Monday April 7th 2025

U.S. equity index futures were sharply lower this morning in response to tariff wars. S&P 500 futures were down 119.00 points to 4,955.08 at 8:30 AM EDT.

JP Morgan raised chances of a recession in the U.S. to 60%.

World equity markets were sharply lower this morning. The Hang Seng plunged 3,021 to 19,828. The Nikkei plunged 2,633 to 31,136. The Frankfurt DAX plunged 778 to 19,866. The Paris CAC plunged 340 to 6,943.

EquityClock's Market Outlook for April 7th

The S&P 500 Index has broken below its intermediate-term rising trend channel, bringing an end to the bull market path that supported domestic equities since October of 2022. See:

https://equityclock.com/2025/04/05/stock-market-outlook-for-april-7-2025/

Technical Scoop from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com

https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/

The Bottom Line

World equity markets were "Trumped" last week. Equity indices around the world dropped sharply after the close on Wednesday when President Trump announced higher than expected tariffs on goods entering into the U.S. Weakness in world equity markets escalated on Friday when countervailing tariffs were announced by China. Other countries are expected to announce countervailing tariffs this week.

Downside technical action by top U.S. listed securities (i.e. U.S. sector ETFs and individual equities included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 100 Index and NASDAQ 100 Index) was extraordinary on Friday. Forty five stocks broke intermediate support on Friday, an increase from 28 stocks that broke support on Thursday. The CNN Fear and Greed Index dropped to 4 out of 100, a record low indicating "Extreme Fear". See https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed According to Market Watch "U.S. stocks saw biggest 2-day wipeout in history" The Volatility Index (VIX) jumped 15.29 to close at 45.31 on Friday, but has yet to show signs of peaking.

Analysts started to reduce their target prices for U.S. equity indices. On Friday, RBC lowered its target price for the S&P 500 from 6,250 to 5,500.

Downside technical action by TSX 60 stocks also was extraordinary. Another seven TSX 60 stocks broke intermediate support/ set downside trends on Friday after five stocks broke support on Thursday. Breakdowns on Friday included Brookfield, Cameco, Cenovus, WSP Global, Manu Life Financial, National Bank and Suncor. The TSX Composite Index completed a classic Head and Shoulders pattern on Friday on moves bellow 24,250.02 and 24,145.59. The TSX 60 Index and its related ETFs (e.g. XIU.TO) completed a similar pattern. Ditto for Canada iShares trading in the U.S.: EWC!

Technical signs of a short term low by world equity indices have yet to surface.

Positive technical action was notable by U.S. Treasury Bonds on Friday. 20+ Treasuries iShares (TLT) broke above $92.46 and $93.52 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies

Source: www.factset.com

Analyst estimates for earnings gains for 2025 recorded modest declines last week. Estimates for revenue gains were unchanged. Consensus for first quarter earnings calls for a 7.0 % increase on a year-over-year basis, down from 7.3% last week. Consensus for first quarter revenues growth remained at 4.2%. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains slipped to 9.1% from 9.3% last week. Consensus for second quarter revenue gains remained at 4.6%. Consensus for third quarter earnings gains slipped to 11.7% from 11.9% last week. Consensus for third quarter revenue growth remained unchanged at 5.4%. Consensus for fourth quarter earnings gains slipped to 11.2% from 11.4% last week. Consensus for fourth quarter revenue gains remained unchanged at 6.0%.

For all of 2025, earnings are expected to increase 11.3%, down from an 11.5% increase last week. Consensus for revenue gains was unchanged at 5.4%.

Economic News This Week

February U.S. Wholesale Inventories released at 10:00 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.8% gain in January.

March U.S. Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase of 0.2% versus a 0.2% gain in February. Excluding food and energy, March CPI is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.2% gain in February.

March U.S. Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.1% versus no change in February. Excluding food and energy, March PPI is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.1% drop in February.

Selected Earnings News This Week

Fiscal first quarter reports by S&P 100 companies start appearing this week. Focus is on reports reported by Financial Service companies on Friday.

Trader's Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 4th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for April 4th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 4th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Hap Sneddon's Top Picks

Hap appeared on BNN on Friday. Following is a link to his "Top Picks"

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/2025/04/04/hap-sneddons-top-picks-for-april-4-2025/

Changes last week

Links offered by valued providers

Michael Campbell's Money Talks for April 5th

Michael Campbell's MoneyTalks - Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)

20 Year Depression Could Follow This Post Bubble Contraction: Bob Hoye

20 Year Depression Could Follow This Post Bubble Contraction - HoweStreet

Trading Desk Notes for April 5, 2025: Victor Adair

Trading Desk Notes for April 5, 2025 - HoweStreet

Economist David Rosenberg on Trump admin: ‘These people don’t understand what a tariff is’

Economist David Rosenberg on Trump admin: ‘These people don’t understand what a tariff is’ - YouTube

Stocks plunge on Trump tariffs: Here’s what you need to know

Stocks plunge on Trump tariffs: Here’s what you need to know - YouTube

JPMorgan raises recession odds for this year to 60% here's why

JPMorgan raises recession odds for this year to 60% here's why - YouTube

Market Meltdown Will Lead to Great Buying Opportunities: Mark Leibovit

Market Meltdown Will Lead to Great Buying Opportunities - HoweStreet

CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 4/4/25

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEp445Cliy0

Market Drop Compared to 2020? What You Need to Know Now

Market Drop Compared to 2020? What You Need to Know Now - YouTube

Tariffs to Take US Tech Back a Decade, Wedbush's Ives Says

Tariffs to Take US Tech Back a Decade, Wedbush's Ives Says - YouTube

Tariffs are NOT Reciprocal: Martin Armstrong

Tariffs are NOT Reciprocal - HoweStreet

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer plunged 19.40 on Friday and 22.20 last week to 13.00. Daily trend is down. It is extremely oversold, but has yet to show signs of bottoming.

The long term Barometer plunged 14.00 on Friday and 19.40 last week to 23.40, lowest level since October 2022. It is extremely oversold, but has yet to show signs of bottoming.

The short term (20 day) Barometer plunged 24.40 on Friday to 6.40. It is extremely oversold and has reached a level where significant recoveries have occurred. No signs of a recovery yet!

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer plunged 21.10 on Friday and 27.06 last week to 22.94. It changed from Neutral to Oversold on a move below 40.00. Daily trend is down.

The long term Barometer plunged 13.30 on Friday and 21.56 last week to 34.40. It changed last week from Neutral to Oversold on a drop below 40.00. Daily trend is down.

Short term (20 days) Barometer plunged 32.57 to 11.01 on Friday. It is extremely oversold, but has yet to show signs of bottoming.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed