Tech Talk for Monday February 10th 2025

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 33 points at 8:30 AM EST.

Steel ETF $SLX advanced $2.11 to $63.45 in anticipation of a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports to the U.S. expected to be announced today.

Gold prices moved higher following the tariff announcement on steel and aluminum Gold bullion futures gained $42.40 to an all-time high at $2,930.00 per ounce.

Rockwell Automation advanced $26.59 to $294.99 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal first quarter earnings.

McDonald's added $6.17 to $300.47 after reporting higher same store sales in the fourth quarter.

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EquityClock's Stock Market Outlook for February 10th

A better than average change in employment for January failed to act as the catalyst to break the cap that overhangs the equity market. See:

https://equityclock.com/2025/02/08/stock-market-outlook-for-february-10-2025/

Technical Scoop for February 10th from David Chapman and www.EnrichedInvesting.com

https://enrichedinvesting.com/library/

The Bottom Line

Despite better than consensus fourth quarter earnings and revenue reports released to date by large cap U.S. and Canadian companies, equity market indices on both sides of the border have stalled below their all-time highs set at the end of January. Analysts have started to take a more cautious stance on strong earnings and revenue gains expected in 2025.

Political uncertainty in Canada and the U.S. is expected to remain high in February, dampening investor enthusiasm in the short term.

As noted on February 4th by www.EquityClock.com, "Looking to become more Neutral in portfolio positioning at this seasonally weak time of year. See:

https://equityclock.com/2025/02/03/stock-market-outlook-for-february-4-2025/

Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies

Source: www.factset.com

Fourth quarter results released last week were encouraging: 62% of S&P 500 companies have reported results to date: 77% have reported higher than consensus quarterly earnings and 63% have reported higher than consensus quarterly revenues. Better than consensus fourth quarter earnings prompted analysts to raise their fourth quarter S&P 500 earnings estimate to a 16.4% year-over-year increase, up from a 13.2% increase last week. Also, consensus for revenue gains increased to 5.2%, up from a 4.8% increase last week.

For all of 2024, consensus calls for a 10.1% earnings increase, up from 9.4% last week. Consensus calls for a 5.2% revenue increase, up from a 4.8% increase lasts week

Analyst estimates for earnings and revenue gains for 2025 were lowered again last week. Consensus for first quarter earnings calls for an 8.7 % increase on a year-over-year basis, down from a 10.1% increase last week. Consensus for first quarter revenues slipped to a 4.5% increase down from a 4.8% increase last week. Consensus for second quarter earnings gains dropped to 10.2% from a 10.9% increase last week and consensus for second quarter revenues was lowered to a 4.7% increase, down from a 4.8% increase. Consensus for third quarter earnings dropped to a 14.5% increase, down from a 14.9% increase. Consensus for third quarter revenues dropped to a 5.4% increase, down from a previous 5.5% increase. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 13.3%, down from a previous 16.1% increase. Fourth quarter revenues are expected to increase 6.0%, down from a 6.4% increase last week.

For all of 2025 earnings are expected to increase 13.0%, down from 14.3% last week and revenues are expected to increase 5.5%, down from a 5.7% gain last week.

Earnings gains are expected to continue into 2026, albeit at a slightly slower rate than consensus for the second half of 2025. Consensus calls for a 13.8% earnings increase, up from 13.7% last week. Consensus for revenue gains .remains at 6.4%.

Economic News This Week

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testifies to the Joint Economic Committee at 10:00 AM EST on Tuesday.

January U.S. Consumer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% gain in December. On a year-over-year basis, January CPI is expected to increase 2.9% versus a 2.9% increase in December. Excluding food and energy, consensus calls for a 0.3% increase versus a 0.2% increase in December.

January U.S. Producer Price Index released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.2% gain in December. Excluding food and energy, the January Index is expected to increase 0.3% versus no change in December.

January U.S. Retail Sales released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to be unchanged versus a 0.4% increase in December. Excluding auto sales, January Sales are expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.4% increase in December

January U.S. Capacity Utilization released at 9:15 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase to 77.7% from 77.6% in December. January Industrial Production is expected to increase 0.3% versus a 0.9% increase in December.

December U.S. Business Inventories released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday are expected to increase 0.1% versus a 0.1% gain in November.

Selected Earnings Reports This Week

Another 78 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report this week (including three Dow Jones Industrial Average companies: McDonald's, Cisco and Coca Cola). Another thirteen TSX 60 companies are scheduled to report.

Trader's Corner

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for February 7th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Source for all positive seasonality ratings: www.EquityClock.com

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for February 7th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for February 7th 2025

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Changes last week

Technical Notes

Base metals equities and their related ETFs are experiencing a belated seasonal upswing that normally occurs from the end of November until the end of February. Global Metals and Mining Producers iShares $PICK moved above $36.89 completing a double bottom pattern.

T-Mobile $TMUS an S&P 100 stock moved above $248.15 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend

Much of the technical weakness on Friday can be attributed to breakdowns through support by Alphabet and Nike extending intermediate downtrends.

Power Corp $POW.TO a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn$47.29 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

Links offered by valued providers

Michael Campbell's Money Talks for February 8th

Michael Campbell's MoneyTalks - Complete Show (mikesmoneytalks.ca)

Signals Stock Markets Should Stay Positive: Mark Leibovit

Signals Stock Markets Should Stay Positive - HoweStreet

Central Bank Rate Cuts Not Road to Prosperity: Bob Hoye

https://www.howestreet.com/2025/02/central-bank-rate-cuts-not-road-to-prosperity-bob-hoye/

The S&P 500’s Rocky Road To 6600 with RBC's Lori Calvasina: Guy Adami and Dan Nathan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0bDNsFH0aLs

CHART THIS with David Keller, CMT Friday 2/7/25

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAriH9JDXYo

Weekly Update with Larry Berman – February 8, 2025

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvG-IhVwFPY

David Rosenberg Explains Why Inflation & Interest Rates Will Go Lower: Wealthtrack

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8PR5qMEI5I

Canadian Energy & Oil Markets: Tariffs, Pipelines & Future Growth | Ninepoint Energy Market Update

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1Cll7q2CZ8

S&P 500 Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 1.80 on Friday and slipped 0.60 last week to 50.60. It remains neutral

The long term Barometer slipped 0.60 on Friday and dropped 2.60 last week to 59.40. It changed last week from Overbought to Neutral. Daily trend is down.

The short term (20 day) Barometer peaked at 83.20 on January 27th and closed at 54.80 on Friday. Daily downtrend was extemded.

TSX Momentum Barometers

The intermediate term Barometer dropped 1.81 on Friday, but gained 4.70 last week to 43.44. It changed last week from Oversold to Neutral on a recovery above 40.00.

The long term Barometer dropped 1.38 on Friday and slipped 0.17 last week to 61.99. It remains Overbought.

Disclaimer: Seasonality ratings and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed