UPDATE 1 -Singapore Q4 GDP growth slows as manufacturing contracts

By Kitco News / February 13, 2018 / www.kitco.com / Article Link

* Q4 GDP q/q annualised growth revised to 2.1 pct vs 2.8 pct

* Year-on-year Q4 growth revised to 3.6 pct vs 3.1 pct

* GDP grew 3.6 pct in 2017, fastest since 2014


By Masayuki Kitano and Fathin Ungku

SINGAPORE, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Singapore's economy grew slower than initially thought in the fourth quarter from the third, as manufacturing activity slumped in a sign of moderating momentum this year as exports of the city state's key tech products taper off.

Revised figures released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry on Wednesday showed gross domestic product increased 2.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis in the October-December quarter, from the previous quarter.

That was below the government's initial estimate onJan. 2 which showed growth of 2.8 percent. "The pace of growth in the Singapore economy is expected to moderate in 2018 as compared to 2017, but remain firm," MTI permanent secretary Loh Khum Yean told reporters.

The pressure on the economy stemmed from the manufacturing sector, which contracted 14.8 percent in the fourth quarter on a quarter-on-quarter annualised basis. Compared to a year earlier, manufacturing grew 4.8 percent, slowing from the third quarter's stellar 19.1 percent expansion.

The MTI said full year 2017 growth came in at a revised 3.6 percent, the fastest expansion since 2014.

On a year-on-year basis GDP rose 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter, accelerating from the advance estimate of 3.1 percent expansion, but slowing from 5.5 percent growth in the third quarter.

The median of 14 analysts in a Reuters poll picked 2.0 percent quarter-on-quarter growth and 2.9 percent year-on-year expansion. FACTORIES UNDER PRESSURE

Despite the weaker manufacturing performance in the fourth quarter, the ministry said the sector was likely to expand and support overall economic growth in 2018.

The ministry's central view is for GDP growth in 2018 to come in slightly above the middle of the forecast range of 1.5 to 3.5 percent.

The global exports boom has benefited Singapore and other trade-dependent Asian economies in the past year, particularly for makers of electronics products and components such as semiconductors.

For the whole of 2017, manufacturing grew 10.1 percent. Singapore's trade agency said non-oil domestic exports grew 8.8 percent in 2017, after shrinking 2.8 percent in 2016.

But there are signs overseas demand is starting to cool, particularly for Singapore's tech products, with December data showing an overall decline in sales to China for the first time in more than a year. The city state's factories have also come under pressure, posting their biggest on-year output decline in two years, as growth in the hot electronics manufacturing slowed. At its last semi-annual policy meeting in October, the central bank held monetary policy steady but changed a reference to maintaining current settings for an extended period, a shift that analysts said created room for a tightening this year.

MAS Deputy Managing Director Jacqueline Loh told reporters on Wednesday that the central bank's monetary policy stance remains unchanged.

Singapore will announce its 2018 budget next week, with economists expecting the government to announce an increase to the goods and services tax to support future social spending.(Reporting by Masayuki Kitano and Fathin Ungku)

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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