US Consumer Spending Dips

RAPAPORT... US retail sales stalled between Augustand September, indicating that consumer confidence may be waning in light ofthe escalating trade war. Total purchases for September -excluding automobiles, gasoline and restaurants - dipped 0.1% compared to theprevious month, according to data the National Retail Federation (NRF)published Wednesday. However, with the month also seeing 4.5% year-on-year growth,the NRF noted that the trade situation might not be the only trigger for therecent slowdown. "The pullback inSeptember compared with August is possibly a reaction to increased fears overUS-China tensions," said NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. "[But] whileuncertainty around trade policy and other issues has dampened consumersentiment recently, consumers still have a lot going for them, as evidenced bylonger-term trends and factors like the tight labor market." He added thatSeptember was a "tricky month to measure" because of seasonal factors includingthe end of summer and back-to-school spending. "This year's early Labor Day mayhave [also] moved up some spending into the last days of August," he noted.The NRF expects a surge inimports at the US's major retail container ports ahead of the next raft oftariffs in December, it said in a separate report last week. Its latest Global Port Tracker datashow that the ports covered by its analysis handled 2 million 20-footequivalent units (TEU) in August - up 0.2% versus July and3.9% year on year. But while the organization predicted acceleratedgrowth in November, it warned these figures would decline as the new Chinatrade tariffs took effect. January 2020 isforecast at 1.9 million TEU, noted the NRF, down 1.9% from January 2019.February - traditionally the slowest month of the year because of Lunar NewYear factory shutdowns in Asia - is forecast at 1.6 million TEU, 1.8% lowerthan the previous year.Image: People on an escalator in a mall. (Shutterstock)