Wall. St., Main St. See Higher Gold Prices
(Kitco News)- Wall Street and Main Street both look for gold prices torise in the next week, based on the Kitco News weekly survey.
The metal was range-bound for much of this week beforetumbling with other commodities on Friday amid U.S. dollar strength asU.S.-China trade-war worries intensified again. Other significant news eventsthis week were a North Korea-U.S. summit, 25-basis-point interest-rate hike bythe Federal Reserve, plus a European Central Bank announcement thatquantitative easing will end when 2018 comes to a close although interest rateslikely will not rise until the end of the summer of 2019.
Sixteen market professionals took part in the survey.There were 10 votes, or 63%, calling for gold prices to rise. There were fourvotes, or 25%, calling for gold to fall, while two voters, or 13%, look for asideways market.
Meanwhile, 1,081 voters responded in an online MainStreet survey. A total of 683 respondents, or 63%, predicted that gold priceswould be higher in a week. Another 306 voters, or 28%, said gold will fall,while 95, or 8%, see a sideways market.
Wall Street
Bullish
Bearish 
Neutral VS
Main Street
Bullish Bearish Neutral For the trading week now winding down, 59% of Wall Streetand 61% of Main Street was bullish. Around 11 a.m. EDT, Comex August gold wasdown 1.4% for the week so far to $1,284 an ounce.
“I am bullish on gold for next week for a number ofreasons,” said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA WealthManagement. “It feels to me like the recent pullback for gold has run itscourse, momentum indicators like the RSI [Relative Strength Index] have turnedback upward. Gold and silver stocks are rallying, often a leading indicator forgold. The Fed news is out, leaving me to wonder what it would take to push USD[the U.S. dollar] higher in the short term.”
Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with at Price FuturesGroup, and Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures, bothlook for gold to rise on inflation concerns. Both cited the metal’s ability toadvance on Thursday even when the U.S. dollar had a stronger tone.
“Although gold and commodities appear in common retreatnow, this could change quickly as investors return to the yellow metal for [a]safe haven,” said Richard Baker, editor of the Eureka Miner Report. “I suspectthe U.S. dollar high will occur today, and [the dollar will] decline next weekas the euro regains some strength after its freefall following Thursday's ECBannouncement. It is likely gold will return to the $1,300 level next week, withsilver regaining $17 territory.”
Mark Leibovit, editor of the VR Gold Letter, also said higher.“Seasonality seems to have kicked in early. Bullish for the next few weeks,” hesaid.
Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer ofAdrian Day Asset Management, is also bullish.
“The gold market has pretty clearly already discountedthe Federal Reserve’s higher rates,” Day said. “Indeed, this has been a patternsince the first hike at the end of 2015: gold falls into the hike, and thenrallies immediately afterwards,”
Jim Wyckoff, senior technical analyst with Kitco,commented that “technicals have improved and risk aversion has upticked just abit late this week.”
Meanwhile, Ralph Preston, principal with Heritage WestFinancial, was among the Wall Street participants who envision lower prices.
“Prices are technically capped at the $1,350 zone on amonthly/quarterly basis, hinting that it is not quite yet ready for a rally ona sustained basis,” Preston said. “We may see a pop higher on a geopoliticalevent; however, I do not see prices holding onto any significant gains in theface of a strengthening U.S. dollar.”
David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets, said he isbearish on gold in the near term since the metal has been unable to break aboveits 200-day moving average.
Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options,said he is neutral on gold prices for next week, putting resistance around$1,313 and $1,320.
“I would not consider buying gold until I see aconvincing settlement above that $1,320 area,” Grady said.
George Gero, managing director with RBC WealthManagement, is also neutral as the market awaits an options expiration later inthe month and continues to digest Thursday’s meeting of the ECB.
“We had a bombshell with [ECB President Mario] Draghiannouncing they will not raise rates for one full year,” Gero said. “It isunprecedented for a central bank to say that.”
By Allen SykoraFor Kitco News
Follow @AllenSykora
asykora@kitco.com Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.