Analyst, History Says this Retailer is Ready to Pop

UAA is nearing a historically bullish trendline

Athletic retailer Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UAA) is moving higher in this morning's trading. Its new-found surge comes just after Citigroup upgraded to "buy" from "neutral" and hiked its price target to $29 from $23. The firm said UAA holds a "renewed focus" for profit growth, and has adapted to the "changing athletic landscape." In response, UAA is up 2.1% at $21.16, at last check.

On the charts the retailer has been moving mostly sideways since mid-January, seeing a floor of support near the $20 level, with any breakout attempts capped at the $22-$23 mark. However, year-over-year UAA has tacked on 24%, and as the shares near a key trendline, it seems the stock may be eyeing another push higher.

Specifically, the security has moved within one standard deviation of its 80-day moving average after a lengthy stretch above it, per data from Schaeffer's Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Over the past three years there have been four other times this signal has sounded, of which ended with UAA seeing an average one-month gain of 10.97% one month out, with a 100% success rate.

Circling back to analyst attention, those following the retail name have been leaning bearish. As of last night's close, 17 of the 22 covering firms carried a "hold" or "sell" recommendation. Plus, the average 12-month price target stands at $20.96 -- flat to current levels -- leaving plenty of room for upgrades and/or price-target hikes in UAA's near future.