US economic data releases suggest continued interest rate hikes till the first quarter of next year. Traders are factoring in a minimum two interest rate hikes in the next six months (may be even more depending on inflation). Federal Chairman Powell has said that interest rates in the USA may be raised by above "neutral". Next year gold will be free from the interest rate hikes correlation. Gold investment returns in emerging markets is positive. (a) The continued fall in currency values and (b) stock markets falling more than pullback rallies are helping gold prices to rise. Gold is a good investment and a safe investment even as prices in US dollar terms are falling. Gold demand in Asia will rise more and more on price falls. Asians will shift investment from bonds and stocks to gold.
The US dollar Index is at a critical juncture. It is trading at 95.72. The two hundred week moving average is at 95.67. If the US dollar Index manages to trade over the 200 week MA till Tuesday, then chances of breaking past 100 will be very high.
Zinc zoomed yesterday and has broken all key resistances. Nickel may have formed a medium term bottom in September. The widening of the zinc-lead spread suggests that the industrial metals rise is here to stay. Aluminum if it rises for another week will rise fifteen percent in the short term. Trading volumes are very thin in industrial metals as Chinese markets are closed this week. In case Chinese do not buy for a few days (after they open), then sudden crash will be there in all industrial metals.
COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2018 - current price $1201.90
Bullish over $1200.10 with $1208.60 and $1215.00 as price target.
Bearish below $1197.10 with $1190.80 and $1178.70 as price target.
? Gold needs to trade over $1197-$1200 to rise to $1215.
? Small sell off will be there below $1197.10
? Crash will be there below $1190.10
? Trend is bearish.
MCX COPPER NOVEMBER 2018 - previous day close Rs.464.70.
? Copper can rise to 474.20 and 480.20 as long as it trades over 460.10.
? Small sell off will be there below 460.10.
? Crash will be there only if copper does not break 469.20 or copper falls below 457.40.
? As long as the rupee falls against the US dollar, the fall will be limited in all industrial metals.
(prices are in Indian rupees above)
HAPPY PROFITABLE TRADING
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.
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