This new world is chaotic and leveraged to the hilt. It is also desperately dysfunctional.
Nowhere else it is more obvious than in two countries -both reduced to ashes in World War II. Both long since rising, phoenix-like, except in one key sector.
Finally, 80 years later, the mantle of history and shame are being shed in the face of necessity.
Let's dive a bit into where Germany and Japan stand today, and what their new roles, and newfound roles, mean for what is to come.
I have been on a bit of a World War II kick. I'll admit this is a long-standing, morbid fascination. Look no further than the last several articles here, here, and here.
Clearly I think it's justified. Two reasons stand out:
Warfare since the end of the Cold War has been asymmetric, both for the U.S. and Russia, though it's easy to say it has mattered more for the U.S. in the last 20+ years.These have been far-flung wars that never, ever would have risked an "all-in" strategy.How the times have changed. Tactics and strategy are wildly different in the wake of the Ukrainian invasion less than a month ago.
Nowhere else is that as obvious as with Germany and Japan. Both gun-shy after their roles in World War II, both massive economies that can and will soak up increased defense spending, and both on the frontlines of potential geopolitical nightmare scenarios.
So what has changed? Let's dive in and start with Germany.
Europe has been basking in the post-Cold War glow. Complacent and adapted to a time that has passed, if it ever actually existed.
From my article on Feb. 24 of this year:
According to the World Bank, as a percentage of government spending the EU is around 2.85% as of the latest data (2020) and sinking back to all-time lows.
As a percentage of total GDP, the EU averages just 1.25% in spite of a NATO requirement to spend at least 2% that was put in place 18 years ago.
This lacks nuance. After all, not all EU members are equals.
Three days after Russia launched its invasion, Germany announced it would invest $100 billion. It also finally committed to the NATO requirement of 2% of GDP spending to defense.