Bank of England rate decision eyed, plus numbers from blue chips BP and Glaxo in coming week

By Jon Hopkins / February 02, 2018 / www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk / Article Link

Once again there will be some quality corporate earnings to be released in the coming week, notably from oil major BP PLC (LON:BP) and drugs giant GlaxoSmithKline plc (LON:GSK), while the first Bank of England monetary policy decision of 2018 and latest UK inflation report will also be eyed.

Back in November, all but two members of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to increase interest rates to 0.5%, while in December all members voted to keep them on hold, but another hike this month is unlikely, although some members may vote for a rise.

Meanwhile, aside from the minutes from the MPC meeting, released at the same time, the quarterly Inflation Report will give a sense of what the Bank of England is thinking. 

Graham Spooner, investment research analyst at The Share Centre commented: "Since the last report, the pound has risen against the dollar, alleviating the pressure on inflation, but the oil price has risen, increasing pressure. 

"Evidence from the surveys suggests that the global economy is picking up nicely and the UK economy is strengthening on the back of this. The more hawkish MPC members may see these factors as a reason to warrant higher rates."

Oil price=better business for BP

Among the company news, investors in BP on Tuesday may well look with mixed feelings to last Thursday's results from peers Royal Dutch Shell PLC (LON:RDSA) and ConocoPhilips.  In both cases the story was fairly simple and superficially positive - better oil price equalled better oil business.

Headline numbers for both Shell and Conoco beat analyst expectations, albeit not by a huge amount, yet, neither announcement lit a fire beneath either share price.

In a nutshell , the market is expecting positivity from 'Big Oil'. The price of crude has been floating in the vicinity US$70 for a while. At the same time, though attentions are beneath the headline numbers now that the sector has stabilised.

Jon Rigby, analyst at UBS, in a preview note, said: "Among the broad themes typical to the industry - capital discipline, shareholder returns, and energy transition - we see particular focus on BP's portfolio and LT production profile.

"Compared to other Majors, BP's 2020+ project portfolio appears gas-weighted (but not LNG) and has limited Brazil or US liquids exposure."

Rigby added: "We expect BP to keep its dividend unchanged, but to continue anti-dilution stock buybacks."

Debt pile and capital spending eyed for Tullow

For mid cap energy explorer Tullow Oil plc (LON:TLW) the crude price and revenue generation will naturally be important, as will the group's profit and cash flow metrics when it updates on Wednesday.

Investors will also be keen to get the latest measure on the group's debt pile, and will welcome commentary around the expected pace of debt repayment. Dovetailing into that, will be news on Tullow's growth initiatives and, therefore, its capital spending plans.

As ever, shareholders expect Tullow to walk the tight rope between debt repayment and value creation in group's asset portfolio (which contains a significant volume of undeveloped oil resources, but, also the potential for big development bills).

Thomas Martin, analyst at Numis, described the broker's disposition ahead of the results as "cautious" whilst highlighting that Tullow is priced at a 38% premium to the rest of the sector.

"Company progress has generally been in-line with expectations (Suriname exploration excepted); however, we have some reservations about the Kenya resource update expected in conjunction with the year-end results on 7th February 2018," Martin said in a note.

Dividend cut worry at GlaxoSmithKline

Blue chip drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline reports its full year results on Wednesday and the worry is that the firm could cut its dividend to support growth.

Nicholas Hyett, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, thinks there is some justification to these fears about the dividend.

Firstly, there are some "tantalising acquisition opportunities" out there at the moment with both Pfizer and Merck rumoured to be considering selling their consumer businesses, Hyett said.

GSK has also been struggling with declining sales of the asthma treatment Advair.

"All that means cash is at a premium, and it would be foolish to think the ?3.9bn dividend hasn't attracted a long hard look," Hyett said.

"(New chief executive) Emma Walmsley's first set of full year results as CEO looks set to be an interesting one."

US tax reform provides boost to Smith & Nephew

Fellow FTSE 100 listed medical products group Smith & Nephew PLC (LON:SN.) is set to receive a boost from the recent US corporation tax cuts and will shed further light on subject at its full year results on Thursday.

The global medical technology business said in January that the tax reforms recently brought in by Donald Trump would see its effective tax rate lowered to 20-21%, down from 25% previously.

The final tax rate will be disclosed with S&N's results.

JP Morgan said the tax rat e guidance was better than it had expected, prompting it to up its earnings per share forecasts by 5.3-6.7% over the next few years.

The financial services firm expects earnings per share of US$0.89 in 2017 and US$1.00 in 2018, up from US$0.87 and US$0.90 previously.

"With a relatively unlevered balance sheet (0.6x EBITDA) giving flexibility (most likely M&A, but possibly a share buyback), a new cost savings programme (to be announced at FY results) and a new CEO TBC, we see the valuation as attractive, coupled with catalysts," wrote analyst David Adlington, adding that the recent weakening of the US dollar is also good news for S&N as it reports its result in the greenback.

Redrow needs to build interest

Shares in house-builder Redrow plc (LON:RDW) have fallen 7% in the year-to-date so Wednesday's half-year report represents a chance to settle shareholders' nerves.

City broker Liberum Capital thinks the share price slide has been caused by fears around earnings momentum, but its analysts argue that recent updates from Redrow's peers suggest trends are stabilising in the new build sales market.

The broker has set its half-year volumes expectations for the mid cap builder at 2,750 units, up 14% year-on-year, driven by increased outlet openings to 132, up from 122 a year earlier.

It has pencilled in ?311,000 for the average selling price, which is 2.5% ahead of where it was last year, and predicts sales of ?862mln and profit before tax of ?163mln, both of which would represent an increase of around 16% on last year.

Order-book strength key for Bellway

By the time the trading update from fellow house-builder Bellway PLC (LON:BWY) comes out on Thursday most of its sector peers will have weighed in.

The house-builders outperformed the market by around 30% in 2017, helped by the government's "help to buy" initiative - which was more like a "have some free money" initiative from the house-builders' perspective, but the sector may see slower selling price rises this year while build-cost inflation may curtail squeeze margins.

Shareholders will be looking at the strength of the order book, which at the beginning of October 2017 had grown 17.4% from the year before to ?1.36bn.

The group is targeting volume growth of at least 5% in the current financial year and the overall average selling prices to increase to around ?280,000, so with half the financial year gone it will be able to give a meaningful update on progress.

North American progress wanted from Compass

Food services giant Compass Group PLC (LON:CPG), which delivers a first quarter trading update on Thursday, is still coming to terms with the tragic death of CEO Richard Cousins in Australia at the beginning of the year.

New CEO Dominic Blakemore has taken up the reins early and will provide a trading update at the group's annual general meeting.

In a preview, The Share Centre's Graham Spooner commented: "At the full year results in November the company said it continued to make good progress in its North American operations although the offshore division remained weak."

He added: "The market will be focusing on those two areas as well as the order pipeline. Compass has said it expects its tax rate to fall from 26.5% to 24% as a result of the corporate tax changes in the US so any guidance on full year results will also be of interest."

International rescue for Ocado

Full-year numbers from online grocer Ocado PLC (LON:OCDO) on Tuesday will no doubt continue to make fairly dull reading, with investors more focused on the group winning further overseas deals based on its new "compelling" contract structure.

Credit Suisse, which recently reiterated its 'outperform' rating and upped its share price target for Ocado to 600p from 480p, said it now expects "at least two" more third-party deals to be announced over the next 12 months.

Earlier this month Ocado signed up its second major international customer less than two months after the first, with Canada's Sobey, with upfront fees upon signing and during the development phase, with ongoing payments linked to capacity and service criteria.

The Swiss bank noted that the Canadian deal uses the same structure as the contract with France's Casino signed at the end of November, with exclusivity for as long as a pre-determined capacity growth profile is met.

The Credit Suisse analysts said they "don't agree with those who view Ocado as expensive" as the FTSE 250 company's shares trade at very high near-term multiples but pointed out that this is "consistent with its growth profile and back-end weighted cash flows".

Significant events expected:

Monday February 5:

Trading updates: Electrocomponents PLC (LON:ECM), Ryanair PLC (Q3) (LON:RYA)

Finals: Randgold Resources PLC (LON:RRS)

Economic data: UK services PMI, US non-manufacturing ISM

Tuesday February 6:

Finals: BP PLC (LON:BP), Ocado Group PLC (LON:OCDO), Amino Technologies PLC (LON:AMO), RM Plc (LOON:RM), St Modwen Properties PLC (LON:SMP)

Interims: Hargreaves Lansdown PLC (LON:HL.), Frontier Developments PLC (LON:FDEV), Mattioli Woods plc (LON:MTW)

Trading update: Babcock International PLC (LON:BAB), Carpetright PLC (LON:Q3)

Economic data: US international trade numbers

Wednesday February 7:

Finals: GlaxoSmithKline plc (Q4) (LON:GSK), Tullow Oil plc (LON:TLW), Rio Tinto PLC (LON:RIO), Smurfit Kappa PLC (LON:SKG)

Interims: Redrow plc (LON:RDW)

Trading updates: Imperial Brands PLC (LON:IMB), Severn Trent PLC (LON:SVT), Grainger PLC (LON:GRI), Anglo Pacific PLC (LON:APF)

Economic data: Halifax UK house prices; US consumer credit

Thursday February 8:

Bank of England MPC meeting: Minutes, quarterly inflation report

Trading updates: Compass Group PLC (Q1) (LON:CPG), Bellway PLC (LON:BWY), AA plc (Q4) (LON:AA.), TalkTalk PLC (Q3) (LON:TALK), Thomas Cook PLC (Q1), Tate & Lyle PLC (Q3) (LON:TATE), DFS Furniture Plc (LON:DFS), Sophos PLC (Q3) (LON:SOPH), Ei Group PLC (LON:EIGE)

Finals: Smith & Nephew PLC (LON:SN.), Beazley PLC (LON:BEZ)

Interims: Ashmore group PLC (LON:ASHM)

FTSE 100 ex-dividends: Sage Group PLC (LON:SGE)

Economic data: RICS UK house price survey; US weekly jobless claims

Friday February 9:

Trading update: Victrex PLC (Q1) (LON:VCT)

Economic data: UK trade data; UK industrial, manufacturing production; UK construction output; US wholesale inventories

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