Being Early, Being Right, Being Wrong: Silver And The Most Hated (And Current) Call Of All-Time
Being early is not being wrong...
(by Half Dollar) Around the end of January/beginning of February, I began formulating a call which included the following:
Strength in the US dollar (DXY to 95)A crash in the US stock market (no level given)Continued downside in gold (to $1700)Silver pounded into the teens (spike low)In one article early on, I put a timeline on it, and that timeline was by the end of April.
Well here we are, and since the markets and the economy are interestingly challenging and full of opportunity right now, considering the broad implications that come as a result of the directions of gold, silver, the dollar and the stock market, now would be a good time to reassess where things stand today.
Let's start with what I obviously got wrong, a crashing stock market:
One of the reasons I have been looking for a crash in the US stock market is because I know how much pleasure the Cartel gets out of financially obliterating the masses, and after such an epic stock market run, among other things, I felt the sheep were ripe for slaughter.
Sadly, I was wrong, and as such, the slaughter is really going to be ugly when it finally comes.
But what if the stock market never crashes again?
Indeed, more and more people are embracing the idea that the stock market will never crash again, mostly because it will be saved by the Fed Put, or the stock market will be simply bid higher by the Cartel.
Of course, what does a stock market that can't crash say about Inflation, and, more importantly, Inflation's criminally psychotic, evil brother, Hyperinflation?
At this point I will be assessing my stock market call, and I will be entertaining the idea that perhaps, as usual, I'm early.
Sell in May and go away?
We won't have to wait long to find out.
A call that I got right was US dollar strength:
Granted, I was expecting more strength in the US dollar than we've seen, and now, as we move into the merry month of May, I will be reassessing my overall calls and my outlook for the markets and the economy.
Perhaps it's time to develop a "wait-n-see" attitude with the dollar index as opposed to being confident on the direction?
Regardless, it's a race to debase, the world around, so in my opinion, any strength or weakness in the dollar is transitory, but not transitory in a Fedspeak kind of way.
Actually transitory, that is.
Shameless plug time: I went through all of my usual charts in this week's Midweek Market Report, which is published over at the best online gold & silver bullion dealer's website:
Every week, the chart portion of my article is now in video presentation form, and I thank you for your consideration!
Let's look at a call that I nailed, the continued downside in gold:
I was looking for a move down to $1700, and all things considered, I'd say I wasn't that far off.
When it comes to gold, and silver too, however, I'm very concerned about the fundamentals in India right now.
Since writing about India last Friday, the situation has apparently become much more dire:
That's doubleplusungood, again, and it matters because crushing the Indian markets & economy is a sure fire way to force Indians to use their savings, gold, and increasingly silver, as opposed to saving them.
In other words, if you are the Cartel and you need some reverse demand for the shiny phyzz, you go to the world's second most populous nation, which conveniently does not have the social safety nets that other nations have, and you destroy that nation financially, forcing its citizens and residents to go into extreme survival mode.
So if the Deep State Globalists are bearing down on India, no pun intended, it stands to reason they can continue to apply the pressure to gold.
Which brings us to silver, and the most hated (and current) silver call of all time:
Did I get my call wrong?
For now, yes.
But wait, there's more!
That's right folks, because just like I nailed it when I said on March 5th that silver had not bottomed, even though every other Analyst, Apologist, Armchair Quarterback, Chart Hugger, Enabler, Expert, Gambler, Guru, Manipulation Denier, Newsletter Writer, Pundit, Sympathizer, or Worse said that silver had bottomed, for numerous ongoing reasons, I can't help but double-down, and I think that we will in fact see silver in the teens.
Let's consider just a couple of the latest developments.
As stated earlier, the Deep State Globalists have been destroying India over the last month, and just like with all hunger pangs and ultimate acts of desperation, there's a lag.
There has also been a highly telegraphed "global silver purchase by the masses", for lack of a better term, targeted for May 1, 2021, and not only has there most likely been some front-running of the purchases, but this event gives the Cartel a couple of clear advantages.
First, the mass purchase is focused on physical silver, and remember, the physical price is derived from the paper price plus the premium, and ultimately, the Cartel doesn't even really care if there is no physical silver to be found, anywhere, because that's not the Cartel's problem.
That's the stacker's problem, that's the bullion dealer's problem, that's the jeweler's problem, that's the electronics manufacturer's problem, and that's myriad other peoples' problem, but it ain't the Cartel's dang problem!
Furthermore, the Cartel has plenty of escape clauses baked-in to its corrupt, bastardized paper financial markets, and if the catch-all, blanket terms & conditions letting the Cartel do whatever weren't enough, the Cartel not only controls the "regulators" and the "enforcement", but the Cartel is the regulators and the enforcement.
It's kind of like being the policeman, the judge, the jury, and the executioner, all in one, and not just making up the laws on-the-fly, but changing the laws on a whim.
Here's the point: This is a physical silver purchase in mass, and the Cartel is happy to not pound silver's price leading up to May 1, 2021, because that way Silver Bugs, Stackers, and other Smart Investors drain less physical silver from the real world then they otherwise would have drained, and during a time when premiums remain elevated and the availability of immediately deliverable silver bars, coins and rounds remains a joke, the Cartel once again gains the advantage.
Again, the scarcity, or the abundance, or the whatever, of physical silver, is not the Cartel's problem until it is the Cartel's problem, and we won't know until after the fact!
Also, now that the buying in mass has taken place and is taking place tomorrow, presumably, one must assume that there is a hard limit to the buying of real, physical silver.
The Cartel may have unlimited money and time on its side, but the Silver Bug, the Stacker, and the other Smart Investor do not have those two things.
You see, people have limited funds, and they can only buy so much, which means the buying becomes "exhausted", and if the buying becomes exhausted, the Cartel can come in to the silver market, pound price, and then just keep on pounding because there is nobody to step in and do the buying since everybody has already bought.
Furthermore, the buying took place in the physical silver market, so not only has the buying been exhausted, but this dynamic basically gives the Cartel fresh ammo with which to unleash carnage in the paper markets after people in the physical markets already fired off all of their ammo.
See how that works?
The Cartel can unleash heck, and all the people can do is run for the hills.
If we want to end the manipulative price suppression of silver, then purchasing real physical silver and safely and securely taking it out of the system is one thing that needs to be done, but that is not the only thing that needs to be done.
If we truly want to end the manipulation, then we must Starve the Beast.
And if I'm right in my call that we get a real good beat-down, a beat-down that takes us into the teens for one last time, personally, I'm backing up the truck, and since that beat-down looks to have been delayed so as to let the latest round of buying exhaust itself out, that beat-down could very well be the Silver May Day Massacre Part II.
So don't be surprised if silver gets taken behind the woodshed once again on Sunday, or in the month of May.
For now, I'm kind of expecting it.
Thanks for reading.
Stack accordingly,
Paul "Half Dollar" Eberhart