How will future historians come at the 2024 presidential election?
It stands every chance of being... historic.
One candidate has already endured a shooting. That he lingers on may be considered a miracle of God.
Merely three prior presidential candidates in United States history Theodore Roosevelt in 1912, Robert Francis Kennedy in 1968 and George Wallace in 1972 were assassins' targets ahead of the election.
Meantime, the incumbent president, Biden, appears destined for the shelf.
Democratic Party Brutuses are closing in on the old fellow. They insist that he give up the purple... and withdraw from the bout.
Just today, former president Obama has withdrawn his blessing.
He claimed the incumbent must "seriously reconsider" his candidacy.
Mr. Obama is the Democratic Party's czar and kingpin. When he says seriously reconsider he in fact says withdraw.
He is essentially seizing his former vice president by the scruff... and hauling him out of the White House.
Whispers circulate that old Joe is indeed preparing to throw up the sponge. He is entering the fifth grief stage acceptance.
Denial is behind him. Anger is behind him. Bargaining and depression are behind him.
Only acceptance remains.
A mere handful of United States presidents have ever quit their quest for an additional term.
They are: James K. Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Theodore Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman and Lyndon Baines Johnson.
And now in every probability Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. will go among them.
The betting market presently gives Vice Present Kamala Harris 62% odds of seizing the Democratic nomination.
The same betting market gives President Biden 24% odds.
What truly is sinking him? The answer is money donor money. Jim Rickards:
The big donors to the Democrats, the kind who give $10 million donations (or more) are putting their checkbooks away. These people are media moguls, tech billionaires, celebrities and big-time property developers. When they refuse to give money to Biden, they are also hurting the down-ballot races from senators to House members to governors. Politicians are notorious for saying "Show me the money." Big donors have an answer: "Just say no."
We believe Jim strikes bull's-eye. Money is as is said the "mother's milk" of politics.
And the incumbent president is taking a mighty weaning. Hence his purging.
Will Big Donors Back Harris?
Will major donors take Ms. Harris to their bosom... and offer her the teat? We are not half so convinced they will.
We cite once again the betting market. It does not... favor her chances. From USA Today:
Lest you are unskilled in graphic interpretation: Ms. Harris stands 6% odds of election.
Mr. Trump meantime stands 71% odds of election.
The oddsmaking may have shifted in the past four days. Yet not, in all likelihood, much.
Who wants to get in back of a loser?
Unless Mr. Trump confronts additional attempts upon his existence... we hazard he will take the laurel.
(How should you invest in anticipation of a Trump victory? "Moneyball" economist Andrew Zatlin shows you here.)
But can we exclude additional attempts upon Mr. Trump's existence? We cannot.
In fact we anticipate them.
There may be evidence it is merely circumstantial that certain individuals expected Mr. Trump to pass over the rainbow Saturday.
Here media outlet DiedSuddenly dons its tinfoil head covering... and reports that:
Soon-to-be unmasked entities bet that President Trump's $DJT stock would plummet ONE DAY before the assassination attempt.
Shorts against the Truth Social stock more than doubled from July 1-July 12, meaning, people or large organizations were predicting that by Monday the stock would plummet, something that undoubtedly would have occurred had President Trump died in Pennsylvania.
This could mean some had foreknowledge of the plot against President Trump's life and tried to profit off the coming calamity.
This also happened on 9/11, where bets were placed against the stocks of major airline companies American and United a day before the attack. An investigation showed that in both cases a single entity and a well-placed insider newsletter tipped off investors to miraculously bet against the top two airlines in the USA, who took a major hit after the hijackings.
Following the referenced incident the Central Intelligence Agency enlisted Jim Rickards and his wizard's knowledge of financial markets.
Jim assisted in the creation of an early-warning model that detected deviant financial activity ahead of terrorist assaults.
It was labeled Project Prophesy.
And Jim's algorithm foiled a 2006 terror plot to explode 10 commercial aircraft.
We do not know if the recent short selling of DJT is mere coincidence. Another catalytic event solely market-involved may explain it.
In fact we lean heavily in that direction.
We do not believe "soon-to-be unmasked entities" were offered advance knowledge of the wetwork.
We do not believe any such knowledge existed. Or if it did exist, that it existed in the skulls of institutional investors.
Yet as we have explained previously, we embrace conspiracy theories and conspiracy theorists.
They offer the nation a very high service.
Are certain conspiracy theories preposterous, debunkable and absurd?
We believe many are preposterous, debunkable and absurd.
But the conspiracy theorist is a suspicious fellow.
And a suspicious man is an alert man. An alert man is a superior citizen.
Did not Jefferson Mr. Tommy Jefferson argue that eternal vigilance is the price of liberty?
He may have said it and he may not have said it.
But if he did not say it someone else did say it.
And whoever said it was a very wise fellow.
The free society must remain perpetually upon its toes. It must remain alert to threats that menace its liberties.
And who is more alert to threats than the conspiracy theorist? Who spends more time upon his toes?
The answer is no one.
So the conspiracy theorist hallucinates. So he chases phantoms. So he connects dots that are not in fact connected.
So he is in many instances lunatic.
It makes no nevermind. For he offers society an incomparable contribution.
His incomparable contribution to society is his suspicion. In particular, his suspicion of government.
Only a suspicious and distrustful people will keep an eye on their government and if necessary, get their hands on its government.
If the people take their eye off their government their government will soon have its hands on the people.
That is precisely why the conspiracy theorist presents vast value.
His eyes are perpetually glued to government.
And government is a thing to be constantly and eternally watched.
Cede it its proverbial inch and it will take its literal mile.
Against this tremendous rascal the conspiracy theorist is arrayed. Against this tremendous rascal the sound citizen is arrayed.
A free society requires him and his dark suspicions... be they anchored in truth or unanchored from truth.
His vigilance is the price he pays for his liberty.
May the Lord bless him for it.
The Daily Reckoning