"It's only a few AK-47s!" will one day be up there with "I only had one!"
Let me explain.
When Griner was arrested in Russia in 2022, I wrote a Rude Awakening piece called "From Russia with Mowie Wowie." I thought it'd be fun to write about two things I don't give a toss about: cannabis and women's sports. I presciently concluded that article with this wrap-up (bolds mine):
My guess is Griner will be released early.
Moscow and DC will get to a prisoner swap deal eventually.
Griner may suffer some more in Russian prisons, but she won't be there for long.
In the meantime, I hope America's diplomats get working on far more critical things.
Like putting out all the fires their President and Speaker of the House have started.
"Moscow and DC will get to a prisoner swap deal eventually."
But little did I know, it would turn out to be the most ill-advised prisoner swap in diplomatic history, with potentially perilous consequences.
Viktor Bout, nicknamed The Merchant of Death, whose life inspired the Nicholas Cage movie The Lord of War, was traded for weed-inhaling, America-hating, chick hoops "star" Britney Griner just under two years ago. It was a deal many called at the time the "Herschel Walker trade of diplomatic history."
I wrote a Rude Awakening piece the week this idiotic trade happened titled, "Russian Agents Don't Need No Stinkin' Cyanide Capsule!"
The news left me in a state of utter disbelief. The only thing that mitigated my shock was the fact that it was Joe Biden's misguided brainchild.
I can't believe I quoted the now-disgraced, but always-disgraceful, former US Senator from the corrupt state of New Jersey, Bob Menedez. But I did, and here it is:
Clearly suffering from a bout of common sense, Senator Bob Menendez, D-N.J., chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said there is no equivalence “between the Brittney Griners of the world and people like Viktor Bout.”
More from Menendez, via Fox News:
"Nothing could be further from the truth, and we cannot ignore that releasing Bout back into the world is a deeply disturbing decision. We must stop inviting dictatorial and rogue regimes to use Americans overseas as bargaining chips, and we must try to do better at encouraging American citizens against traveling to places like Russia where they are primary targets for this type of unlawful detention."
I agreed with Menendez at the time, and I still do.
If you're still unsure who Viktor Bout is and why he's so important, let me tell you.
I think it's fair to say Viktor Bout (pronounced Boot) is an amoral logistics expert.
He doesn't care about the guns, ammo, or anything else he's shipping.
Bout is an excellent businessman who specializes in transporting contraband.
He also exacerbated conflicts all over Africa. But that didn't and doesn't matter one bit to him.
And that's what makes him so dangerous.
Bout's qualifications aren't disputed.
At the time, I wrote:
But why would Vladimir Putin and his cronies want Bout – who specialized in shipping arms around Africa – out of prison?
It seems fishy to me until you read those headlines.
It's worth noting that Bout also stole $32 billion worth of weaponry from Ukraine between 1992 and 1998.
It may have taken a while, but Bout's words to The New Yorker proved correct:
"They will try to lock me up for life," Bout told me. "But I'll get back to Russia. I don't know when. But I'm still young. Your empire will collapse, and I'll get out of here."
Perhaps the USG thinks he's going to retire.
But if I were Bout, the first thing I'd say to Putin is, "Thank you, Comrade President. What can I do for you?"
And then, I'd get the band back together.
Because Russian agents now know the Kremlin won't forget you.
No cyanide pill is required.
Just keep your mouth shut, and you'll be home one day.
I wrapped up that article with this (bolds mine):
I'm happy Griner is out of prison.
No one deserves nine days, let alone years, in jail for vaping weed oil.
That she hates America isn't germane to the conversation. She's got a passport and, therefore, the right to her government's help.
But trading her for Viktor Bout?
Insanity.
Expect an article, when we least expect it, detailing all the gunrunning Bout has started doing again at the behest of Vladimir Putin.
Politicians are always in it for the quick win and rarely, if ever, think down the road.
That goes double for 80-year-old Joke Biden.
Always beware of an old man in a hurry.
It's times like these that I'm amazed that anyone is amazed by an obvious conclusion.
Well, let's see:
Credit: The Wall Street Journal
The Journal writes (bolds mine):
Since his release, Bout has joined a pro-Kremlin far-right party and won a seat in a local assembly in 2023, seemingly turning the page on his days as an arms broker. But when Houthi emissaries went to Moscow in August to negotiate the purchase of $10 million worth of automatic weapons, they encountered a familiar face: the mustachioed Bout, according to a European security official and other people familiar with the matter.
The potential arms transfers, which have yet to be delivered, stop well short of the sale of Russian anti-ship or antiair missiles that could pose a significant threat to the U.S. military's efforts to protect international shipping from the Houthis' attacks.
The Biden administration has been worried that Russia might provide the Houthis with such advanced weapons to retaliate for Washington's support of Ukraine, but there is no evidence that those missiles have been sent, or that Bout is involved in such a deal.
Still, even small arms shipments to the Houthis would be opposed by Washington, which has designated the Yemen militants as a terrorist group.
The only newspaper I can see disputing The Journal's story that Bout is back in the business is the South China Morning Post.
Of course, Bout himself denied the story in TASS:
“The article's allegations are baseless; it's just a flash in the information field,” Bout said.
According to him, the [Journal] “long ago shifted from being a strictly economic outlet, traditionally covering financial and economic matters, to becoming a biased political media. We know this particularly from the case of Evan Gershkovich, a Wall Street Journal reporter who was caught red-handed and arrested in [the Russian city of] Yekaterinburg. It was proved during the trial that he had acted under cover and collected intelligence for the CIA while working for the newspaper. This is why reports by such media outlets should be viewed primarily through the prism of who the report benefits and what news hook it seeks to create."
The Journal could've gotten it wrong. After all, their sources are flimsy.
But Bout (and Russia) could be lying about it, too.
Of course, if Potatohead Biden hadn't released him, we wouldn't be discussing this.
On days like this, I feel vindicated.
From Day One, it was obvious that the Biden Administration’s decision to release Bout was an unforced error. It was also obvious that one day, Bout would get back to doing what he does best.
After all, you don't leave your ace on the bench for long. If need be, he pitches Games 1, 3, 5, and 7.
And Viktor Bout is an ace up Vladimir Putin's sleeve.
It's only a few AK-47s anyway...
The Daily Reckoning