BP to see earnings boost from higher crude prices, but free cash flow under pressure

By Jon Hopkins / April 30, 2018 / www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk / Article Link

Higher crude prices are obviously good news for Big Oil but it is not necessarily that simple for investors in BP PLC (LON:BP), which like rival Royal Dutch Shell, has many more moving parts.

Shell shares were on the back foot after its first-quarter results last week as crude strength didn't translate directly to free cash flow.

Morgan Stanley analysts, in a recent note, said they expected BP's first quarter production to be broadly flat on a quarter-on-quarter basis as higher contribution from key 2017 start-ups would likely be offset by the expiration of Abu Dhabi offshore assets.

"We expect the benefit of seasonally lower cash costs to be offset by higher DD&A (depreciation, depletion and amortisation of oil and gas properties)," said analyst Martjin Rats.

"Still we expect exploration and production earnings (EBIT) to increase primarily due to higher Brent prices."

Tasty update expected from Just Eat

Just Eat PLC (LON:JE.) will also issue a first-quarter trading update on Tuesday which could make for tasty reading, although only revenues will be reported, and no update is expected on the group's investment plans.

Deutsche Bank forecasts the FTSE 100-listed firm reporting revenues of ?156m of revenues, up 31% year-on-year.

The bank's analysts estimate Just Eat to report 48mln of orders in Q1, up 23% year-on-year driven by Skip the Dishes and Developing markets.

In the UK, the analysts forecast 18% order growth, as Q1 2017 is a relatively easy comparative

In Australia, however, they expect to see no order growth on the back of platform challenges, competition and tough comparatives.

FOMC meeting kicks off

The main economic focus this week will be on the latest Federal Reserve meeting which kicks off on Tuesday, with a monetary policy decision due on Wednesday.

In a preview of the meeting, economists at Societe Generale said: " We expect the Fed to hold rates steady at the May 2 FOMC meeting, and with no new projections or a press conference, the only changes will be to the FOMC statement."

They added: "The biggest change could be to the assessment of current inflation, especially given our expectation that both the headline and core PCE deflators will likely be at target by the time of the meeting."

The SocGen economists concluded: "Given the solid underlying pace of job growth, we expect the Fed to retain the language on the labor market."

Significant events expected on Tuesday May 1:

Two-day FOMC meeting begins

Interims: BP PLC (Q1) (LON:BP), Just Eat PLC (Q1) (LON:JE.), Connect Group PLC (LON:CNCT)

Finals: Nasstar Plc (LON:NASA), Pelatro PLC (LON:PTRO)

Trading updates: DS Smith PLC (LON:SMDS), Jardine Lloyds Thompson Group PLC (LON:JLT), Plus 500 Ltd (LON:PLUS), Virgin Money Holdings (UK) PLC (LON:VM.)

Economic data: UK manufacturing PMI; US ISM manufacturing index; US manufacturing PMI; US construction spending

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