Can We Live in a World without Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
The World SilverSurvey is an annual report published by The Silver Institute since 1990. Itprovides market participants with supply and demand statistics for criticalsectors of the silver market, along with price and trade data.
The 2022 World SilverSurvey reported a global silver deficit of 154 million ounces, the mostsignificant since 2015. The 2023 World Silver Survey reported a global silverdeficit of 129 million ounces, the second-largest since 2015.
High silver use(demand from the industrial and investment sectors) created this deficitagainst a backdrop of underinvestment in mining and flat-lining production.
Meanwhile, mostsilver is mined as a byproduct of other metals, including copper, zinc, and gold – meaning higher silver prices do not necessarily bring out more minesupply.
Here is a tablesummarizing the silver deficits reported in the past two World Silver Surveys:
Year / Silver Deficit
2022 154 million ounces
2023 129 million ounces
Total 283 million ounces
Theglobal silver market faces a structural deficitdue to many factors, including: The increasing use of silver in renewable energy technologies, such as solar panels, wind turbines, EVs, and batteries. Silver is used extensively in various electronic components, mobile phones, and computers, characterizing the growing demand for silver from the electronics sector. The sharp increase in apps, social media, crypto mining, and streaming services (including YouTube, TikTok, Vimeo, Netflix, Hulu, Paramount, Prime Video, and AppleTV). These combined use enormous volumes of servers and high-end computers for developers. Silver is the best conductor of electricity, leading to its incorporation in countless emerging technologies. The popularity of silver as an investment asset is spiking worldwide, including in BRICS countries as they are fighting Federal Reserve note dollar hegemony.
Evenas it documents supply deficits, the World Silver Survey appears to haveoverlooked a few areas of silver consumption.
SolarPanel Improvements Not Captured by World Silver Survey
Whetherwe like it or not, the World is shifting away from fossil fuels towardsso-called renewable energy. Solar, wind, and battery technologies requiremassive amounts of raw materials to be produced, but virtue-signalinggovernment leaders haven't figured this out quite yet.
TheWorld Silver Survey, when calculating silver use in solar panels, used outdatedspecifications. It was looking at PERC panels. However, two new solar paneldevelopments are now considered superior to the older PERC panels, and they usemore silver.
Firstly,TOPCon solar cells are a type of PERC solar cell with a textured oxidepassivation layer on the front of the cell. This layer helps reflect light backinto the cell, increasing efficiency.
Secondly,HJT solar cells have a heterojunction between the p-type and n-type siliconlayers. This heterojunction helps to reduce recombination losses, whichincreases the efficiency.
Perhapsmost significant is the development of double-sided panels.
Solarfarms now use double-sided panels. Double-sided solar panels are more efficientthan single-sided solar panels because they can absorb sunlight from both thefront and back. This means they can generate more electricity from the samespace.
TheSilver Institute did not capture the TopCon and HJT, meaning they reportedoutdated specs over the silver loads per panel. They reported 80mg of silverper panel vs. the HJT panel, which uses up to 220mg per panel.
Thesolar panel specs are written in Chinese. Perhaps Silver Institute researchersstill need to translate the Chinese specs.
Andwhen you start installing double-sided panels, you're doubling the silver use.
MilitaryUse of Silver
TheU.S. Navy uses silver-zinc batteries in its nuclear submarines. These batteriesprovide backup power for a submarine's nuclear reactor. The silver-zincbatteries are very efficient and can provide power for up to 72 hours.
Foreach sub, a typical battery uses 100 pounds of silver. There are over 150nuclear submarines worldwide, totaling 15,000 pounds of silver. There are218,750 troy ounces in 15,000 pounds. This statistic is for nuclear subsequipped with silver-zinc batteries.
Allof the world's military use of silver is also not listed in the World SilverSurvey.
Thebottom line is this: Silver’s widening array of uses is pressuring availablesupplies, and the delta between silver use and silver production may already belarger than thought.
Jon Forrest Little graduated from the University of New Mexico and attended Georgetown University's Institute for Comparative Political and Economic Systems. Jon began his career in mining industry and now publishes "The PickAxe" which covers topics surrounding precious metals, energy, history, and politics.
© 2023 Jon Forrest- All Rights Reserved
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