Consolidation and improving market conditions to lift trading at discount airline easyJet

By Jon Hopkins / January 22, 2018 / www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk / Article Link

Shares in low-cost airline easyJet PLC (LON:EZJ) are up over 15% in the last three months, in response to improving market conditions, with a boost last week from an upgrade in rating by US investment bank Morgan Stanley.

The demise of Air Berlin and Monarch - the former now part of easyJet - has taken some capacity out of the market, but countering this the cost per seat (excluding fuel) at constant currency has been on the increase, rising 0.9% to ?38.69 in the year to 30 September 2017.

Investors will therefore be looking for an update on the latter in the blue chip airline's first quarter trading statement on Tuesday, as well as further thoughts on the acquisition of Air Berlin and its airport slots.

The company is also said to be in the running to make a bid for Alitalia in conjunction with Air France, and might comment on this as well.

Revenue trends in the first quarter of the current financial year were said to have been encouraging, according to a paragraph in the company's full year results statement.

Revenue per seat growth at constant currency in percentage terms in the first quarter is expected to be positive by low to mid-single digits and reflects a degree of short-term benefit as well as underlying improvement.

Solid growth despite regulatory unknowns for IG Group

Analysts at Numis Securities expect spread betting and CFD trading firm IG Group PLC (LON:IGG) to report a 9.4% increase in its first half revenues to ?268.4mln, with first quarter trading having been particularly strong.

They expect IG's cost control to be tight, in line with guidance, and believe cost control will become an increasing benefit to investors over the next few years.

Despite the impact of the reviews from UK regulator, the FCA and its European peer, ESMA still being unknown, the Numis analysts expect IG's first half dividend policy to be held at 0.3 times the prior year full year payout as the group's balance sheet remains very strong.

Cash and production eyed at Cairn Energy

Mid cap oiler Cairn Energy PLC (LON:CNE) will publish a trading update too, with UBS forecasting production at 2,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for full year 2017, rising to 22,000 boe/d for full year 2018 following the flow of first oil from the Kraken field in June 2017 and Catcher in December 2017.

The Swiss bank's analysts pointed out that, given these fields are the sole contributors to Cairn's 2018 production, a successful ramp-up is crucial, with development capex for the second half of 2017 last guided at US$110mln.

UBS forecasts Cairn's year-end 2017 group net cash at US$$27mln, down from US$254mln at the half-year stage largely due to the capex spend, which the broker forecasts at US$250mln in total for 2017.

The analysts said they will also be looking for any updates on the final investment decision for the North Sea Skarfjell field and a resolution of the Indian tax dispute, with the final International Treaty hearing scheduled for August 2018.

Pricing strategy key for Pets at Home

The merits of a new pricing strategy will be under the microscope when pets supplies retailer Pets at Home PLC (LON:PETS) delivers its latest trading update, according to George Salmon, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

After a period of declining sales trends, Pets at Home's management took the decision to cut prices to support volumes in its Merchandise business, and while this has seen margins take a turn for the worse, recent results have seen the group deliver improving trends in like-for-likes again.

With expansion in its services division reliant on up-selling to everyday customers, the analyst said he can understand why the group has taken this approach, however he fears there's still a few longer-term issues to address.

Salmon concluded: "We suspect online competition has been a contributing factor to recent problems, so it'll be interesting to see whether there's any plans to revamp the group's website."

Margins lower at Marston's but sales recovering

Brewer and pubs operator Marston's plc (LON:MARS) saw sales growth at its Destination & Premium (D&P) business decelerate throughout 2017 with the fourth quarter seeing a 0.8% decline impacted by poor weather in August.

However, trading since the 30 September 2017 year end was described in November as in line and, encouragingly, like-for-like sales at its pub business had returned to growth for the first 7 weeks of the new year.

As a result, analysts at Numis Securities said they remain comfortable with their assumption of 0.5% sales growth from D&P and 2% growth in Marston's wet-led Taverns for full year 2018.

However, the analysts added, after a 40 basis point reduction in D&P's EBIT margin in full year 2017, they expect another 30 bp decline this year.

They also expect the group to reiterate plans to open 15 pubs/bars and six lodges during the year, in line with forecasts.

Significant events expected on Tuesday January 23:

Trading updates: easyJet PLC (LON:EZJ), Cairn Energy PLC (LON:CNE), Marston's plc (LON:MARS), N Brown Group PLC (LON:BWNG), Paragon Group PLC (LON:PAG), Pets at Home PLC (LON:PETS), SSP Group PLC (LON:SSP) 

Interims: IG Group PLC (LON:IGG)

Finals: Benchmark Holdings PLC (LON:BMK), Harwood Wealth Management Group PLC (LON:HW.), Lakehouse PLC (LON:LAKE), Velocity Composites PLC (LON:VEL)

Economic data: CBI industrial trends survey; Richmond Fed manufacturing index

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