Court Showdown Over Gold Project's 'Substantially Started' Status Approaching
Seabridge Gold Inc. (SEA:TSX; SA:NYSE.MKT) provided an update on the next phase of the legal proceedings related to the petitions initiated against the "Substantially Started" designation for its massive KSM project in British Columbia's "Golden Triangle." Find out why some analysts see the project as the key to the company's future.
Seabridge Gold Inc. (SEA:TSX; SA:NYSE.MKT) provided an update on the next phase of the legal proceedings related to the petitions initiated in late 2024 against the "Substantially Started" designation for its massive KSM project in British Columbia's "Golden Triangle."
The petitions challenged the province's Environmental Assessment Office's (EAO) decision to grant Seabridge Gold's KSM project the designation, which ensures that the project's Environmental Assessment Certificate will not expire.
In its management discussion and analysis for the three- and six-month periods ending June 30, the company highlighted its ongoing efforts to secure a joint venture agreement for the KSM project with a suitable partner "on terms advantageous to the company, since it does not intend to build the full project or operate the project alone." The discussion noted, "The company remains on track to meet its 2025 budget of CA$162.7 million for activities at KSM. In the second half of 2025, the company will focus on advancing site capture, early works, and environmental programs."
RBC Capital Markets Analyst Michael Siperco commented on August 13, "The key catalyst for Seabridge remains finding a senior partner to advance the large-scale KSM project toward a feasibility study and a construction decision, with a process currently underway (pending affirmation of substantially started status, hearing scheduled for September)."
The company has indicated progress in discussions with several potential partners for the project. Siperco also pointed out that the rest of the company's portfolio, including advanced projects Iskut and Courageous Lake, provides increasing optionality and potential as sources of future funding (beyond 2025).
"Early work is continuing at KSM . . . which we view as a world-class gold/copper project with strong leverage to higher metal prices," he wrote.
Challenges Filed in 2024
The challenges to KSM's Substantially Started designation (SSD) were filed last year.
Seabridge noted in its release September 9 that it has filed its written submissions detailing the company's arguments regarding the adequacy of the consultation process and the procedural fairness observed by the EAO in making the SSD decision, asserting that the granting of the SSD was reasonable.
Seabridge is also contending that SkeenaWild Conservation Trust lacks standing and that its petition should be dismissed. The BC Government has also filed its written submissions on these matters concurrently with Seabridge's filing.
RBC Capital Markets Analyst Michael Siperco commented, "The key catalyst for Seabridge remains finding a senior partner to advance the large-scale KSM project toward a feasibility study and a construction decision, with a process currently underway (pending affirmation of substantially started status, hearing scheduled for September)."The court hearing is scheduled for September 22 to October 1, the company said.
"We believe the arguments against the allegations in the petitions are compelling. I continue to have confidence in the strength of our position against the petitions and hope for a speedy decision by the court," Seabridge Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Rudi Fronk said. "While this legal process continues, the SSD remains in effect."
Additionally, in recent weeks, the Southeast Alaska Indigenous Transboundary Commission, one of the two petitioners that filed the second Petition challenging the SSD, has withdrawn from the proceedings.
Red Cloud Analyst Taylor Combaluzier wrote in an updated research note in December that his firm was "optimistic that these challenges will ultimately prove unsuccessful."
"We note that these challenges have no immediate effect on the SS determination, and a verdict on the matter could take a year or more," he wrote.
Company Remains on Track for Objective, Analyst Says
In an updated research note on August 12, Cantor Fitzgerald Analyst Mike Kozak highlighted results the company released from Snip North at its Iskut project. Kozak maintained the firm's Buy rating, with a one-year price target of CA$46. "Based on the drilling to date, a maiden resource of +1.5 Bt (billion tonnes) @ ~0.45 g/t Au (grams per tonne gold) and ~0.15% Cu (copper), containing ~20 Moz Au and ~5 Blb (billion pounds) Cu is potentially achievable (Cantor estimate) but subject to additional exploration results from the current 12,000-meter drill program," wrote Kozak.
Analyst Taylor Combaluzier with Red Cloud Securities also described the Snip North results as "positive." The analyst upheld Red Cloud's Buy rating with a price target of CA$56.95 per share, a 146% return as of August 13 when he wrote the update. "We also note that Seabridge remains on track to execute on one of its top objectives of delineating a maiden MRE at Snip North by Q1/26."
The Catalyst: Investors Flocking to Gold
As global uncertainty continues to rise, investors are flocking to gold, widely regarded as the ultimate safe-haven asset, wrote Angelica Leicht for CBS News MoneyWatch on September 8.
This demand drove the price of gold to soar past US$3,600 per ounce on Monday morning, setting a new record high and marking an impressive increase of over US$1,000 per ounce compared to just a year ago.
This isn't the first time gold prices have climbed this year. Despite some temporary lulls and price dips, the precious metal has been a standout performer for much of this year, rising by approximately 38% since January 1, when it was valued at about US$2,624 per ounce.
Nevertheless, many potential investors are observing from the sidelines, questioning whether they've missed the chance to benefit from gold's price surge. After all, gold is trading at levels that would have seemed unimaginable just a few years ago. So, does today's record-high gold price mean it's too late to invest, or should investors still consider purchasing gold now?
"Historically, upticks in gold prices are often followed by temporary dips as investors take profits or sell off gold assets to round out their portfolios," Leicht noted. "Right now, though, analysts are doubling down on gold, with Goldman Sachs Research predicting in a note released last week that gold will rise to US$3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025."
The bank also provided a baseline forecast for a rise to US$4,000 an ounce by mid-2026, with even more aggressive scenarios possible. If just 1% of the privately owned U.S. Treasury market were to shift into gold, Goldman Sachs' analysts anticipate that the gold price could approach US$5,000 per troy ounce.
Goldman isn't the only one with a positive outlook. J.P. Morgan expects gold prices to average US$3,675 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2025 and move toward US$4,000 by mid-2026.
Meanwhile, UBS has upgraded its gold forecast, predicting a price range of US$3,700 to US$4,000 an ounce by mid-2026, citing increasing uncertainty around tariffs and geopolitical risks, Leicht said.
Gold has climbed over 33% this year, surpassing US$3,500 per troy ounce, Petter Gratton wrote for Investopedia on September 8.
Streetwise Ownership Overview*
Seabridge Gold Inc. (SEA:TSX; SA:NYSE.MKT)
*Share Structureas of 8/20/2025Source: RefinitivIt continued its record-breaking surge on Tuesday, supported by the anticipation of a forthcoming U.S. interest rate cut in September, while investors awaited inflation data expected later this week, Anushree Ashish Mukherjee and Sarah Qureshi wrote for Reuters on September 9.
"This rally is largely driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates, potentially as early as September," said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities, according to the Investopedia article.
Ownership and Share Structure
Refinitiv provided a breakdown of the company's ownership and share structure, where management and insiders own approximately 3% of the company. According to Refinitiv, CEO and Chairman Rudi P. Fronk owns 1.22%.
Refinitiv reports that institutions own about 56% of the company. Friedberg Mercantile Group Ltd. owns 16.08%, Van Eck Associates Corp. owns 2.62%, Kopernik Global Investors L.L.C. owns 7.34%, and Paulson & Co. Inc. owns 2.06%.
According to Refinitiv, there are about 100.54 million shares outstanding, while the company has a market cap of CA$2.5 billion and trades in a 52-week range of CA$13.44 and CA$28.39.
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Important Disclosures:
Seabridge Gold Inc. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$3,000 and US$6,000.Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.For additional disclosures, please click here.