Yesterdaywe witnessed a good attempt to move to the downside. The sellers were partiallyrebutted. How did the big picture stand the test of yesterday and what are weto do about it?
Let’sexamine the chart below (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
Yesterday,crude oil increased a bit after the market’s open and hit a fresh January high.On an intraday basis, that is. The combination of the 38.2% Fibonacciretracement and the upper line of the purple rising trend channel stopped the buyersfor the third time in a row. The price reversed down and even if it ended the day way off thelows, it was still a clear down day. In the near future, we are likely to getmore confirmation of the approaching move down in the form of higheraccompanying volume than yesterday– that would represent more ofa conviction of the sellers.
Black goldclosed the day slightly below the upper border of the red consolidation basedon the December peak. We can read this as invalidation of the earlier breakout,which is a bearish development. This is further underlined by the StochasticsOscillator ready to flash its own sell signal.
Recentobservations featured in our OilTrading Alerts remain up-to-date also today. The odds favor the move to thedownside. At a minimum, we are likely to see a drop to the lower border of thepurple rising trend channel in the very near future. If this support doesn’thold, the next downside targets would be the 50-day moving average (currentlyat around $50.72) and the green support zone around the $50 mark.
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Nadia Simmons
Forex & Oil Trading Strategist
PrzemyslawRadomski
Founder, Editor-in-chief
Sunshine Profits: Gold & Silver, Forex,Bitcoin, Crude Oil & Stocks
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