Deloitte Predicts Uplift in Holiday Sales

RAPAPORT... US retail sales are forecast toincrease by up to 5% this holiday season, while e-commerce spending could jumpby 18%, Deloitte said Tuesday. The predictions, initially outlined in the consultingfirm's annual holiday retail forecast, published last month, were reiterated inits latest holiday retail survey report, released earlier this week. Deloitte expected overallholiday retail sales to increase between 4.5% and 5% this year, according toboth documents. E-commerce sales were predicted to fare even better, with theconsulting firm anticipating that these would grow between 14% and 18% year on yearduring the 2019-20 holiday season, compared to an increase of 11% in 2018. Thisgrowth is set to result in between $144 billion and $149 billion in e-commercesales over the season, Deloitte noted. While the consulting firm'sprojections haven't changed, the results of its annual holiday retail surveypaint a less optimistic picture. The poll, which quizzed a national sample of4,410 people about their spending plans this season, indicated that consumersentiment remained positive in the short term. However, fewer than 40% ofrespondents said they expected the economy to improve in 2020 - 13% down on2018. This resulted in them beingmore conservative in their projections for the upcoming holidays, with those surveyed predicting they would spend an average of $1,496 per household overthe period. This marks a 2.6% dip on the $1,536 average achieved in 2018. Despite the caution noted byconsumers polled for the survey, both Deloitte and its respondents agreed thate-commerce would grow in importance this year. The survey found that CyberMonday had eclipsed Black Friday as the most important date in consumers'holiday-spending calendar. The shift applies to all generations, Deloitte said,observing that 65% of Generation Zers and 61% of millennials had expressedinterest in securing an online deal during Cyber Monday. Deloitte also predicted thathigh spenders would make a valuable contribution to online sales over theperiod, based on the survey's findings. Of the 20% of respondents who intendedto spend over $2,101 - and who together account for 60% of all holidayexpenditure - nearly two thirds planned to use their smartphones to make thosepurchases, it noted. This compares to only half for the rest of thepopulation. Image: A woman shopping for jewelry online during the holidays. (Shutterstock)