Dollar retreats from 2018 high; seen as temporary pause

By Kitco News / May 09, 2018 / www.kitco.com / Article Link

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Wednesday from its strongest levels in 2018 against a basket of currencies due to mild profit-taking, but is expected to resume its rise due to solid U.S. economic growth and more interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve.

The weaker greenback stemmed from a bounce in the euro, which hit a fresh year-to-date low in earlier trading.

“There’s a little exhaustion with the long-dollar trade, but I don’t think we’ve reached the end of it yet,” said Ilya Gofshteyn, FX and global macro strategist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York.

Concerns about the U.S. exit from an international nuclear deal with Iran had also supported the dollar in early Asian trading. For now, traders put the issue on the backburner until there is a further development, analysts said.

“The market has kind of moved past this,” said Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management in New York.

At 9:47 a.m. (1347 GMT), the index that tracks the dollar against six currencies .DXY slipped 0.17 percent to 92.946 after touching a 2018 peak of 93.416 earlier.

The three-week long rally for the U.S. currency, in which it has reversed several months of weakness, has caused the unwinding of popular long bets on emerging market and G10 currencies.

The euro hit a year-to-date low of 1.1821 earlier on Wednesday before reversing course to $1.1875, for a 0.1 percent gain on the day, according to Reuters data.

The dollar climbed 0.6 percent to 109.74 yen JPY= and edged up 0.07 percent to 1.0021 Swiss franc CHF= as worries about U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to pull the United States out of the Iran nuclear deal faded somewhat.

The dollar’s pullback was moderated by higher U.S. yields underpinned by expectations of rising U.S. inflation and a swelling U.S. budget deficit.

Low inflation remains a concern for major central banks.

On Wednesday, the U.S. government’s producer price index grew by a slim 0.1 percent in April, less than what analysts had expected.

Swedish inflation edged down to 1.9 percent on a year-over-year basis last month, just below the Riksbank’s 2 percent goal.

Nevertheless, the Swedish crown, one of the worst performing G10 currencies in 2018, rallied in the wake of the softer inflation reading. It jumped 1.4 percent versus the dollar SEK= and 1.3 percent against the euro EURSEK=.

“Even though the inflation prints matched consensus and matched the Riksbank’s expectations and decelerated, markets had been concerned about further downside,” ScotiaBank analysts wrote in a research note.

========================================================

Currency bid prices at 9:52AM (1352 GMT)

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change

Session

Euro/Dollar EUR= $1.1878 $1.1862 +0.13% -0.98% +1.1897 +1.1823

Dollar/Yen JPY= 109.7900 109.1100 +0.62% -2.56% +109.8300 +109.0000

Euro/Yen EURJPY= 130.41 129.46 +0.73% -3.53% +130.4800 +129.3600

Dollar/Swiss CHF= 1.0026 1.0014 +0.12% +2.90% +1.0043 +1.0004

Sterling/Dollar GBP= 1.3583 1.3544 +0.29% +0.53% +1.3606 +1.3500

Dollar/Canadian CAD= 1.2884 1.2948 -0.49% +2.44% +1.2974 +1.2870

Australian/Doll AUD= 0.7456 0.7450 +0.08% -4.42% +0.7465 +0.7413

ar

Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.1914 1.1883 +0.26% +1.92% +1.1919 +1.1867

Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8744 0.8757 -0.15% -1.56% +0.8767 +0.8733

NZ Dollar/Dolar NZD= 0.6983 0.6969 +0.20% -1.45% +0.6995 +0.6950

Dollar/Norway NOK= 8.0492 8.1389 -1.10% -1.92% +8.1625 +8.0516

Euro/Norway EURNOK= 9.5644 9.6549 -0.94% -2.89% +9.6641 +9.5662

Dollar/Sweden SEK= 8.6875 8.8172 -1.38% +5.92% +8.8591 +8.6861

Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.3180 10.4627 -1.38% +4.87% +10.4788 +10.3207

Additional reporting by Tommy Wilkes in LONDON, Shinichi Saoshiro in TOYKO; Graphics by Saikat Chatterjee and Ritvik Carvalho; Editing by Jon Boyle and Paul Simao

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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