Dollar weakness hoists pound, but outlook bleak

By Kitco News / July 11, 2019 / www.kitco.com / Article Link


* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019
* Graphic: Trade-weighted sterling since Brexit vote
* Pound on course to reverse week's losses
* Virgin's Richard Branson warns of parity with dollar
* Brexit and lower rates still a drag for sterling (Adds quote, updates prices)By Olga CotagaLONDON, July 11 (Reuters) - Sterling firmed on Thursday,erasing most of this week's losses, after U.S. Federal ReserveChairman Jerome Powell weakened the dollar by leaving the dooropen for rate cuts.The pound edged higher thanks to broad-based dollarweakness, snapping a recent losing streak, but a weakeningeconomy and Brexit fears kept a firm lid on gains.The British currency had briefly plumbed a two-year low thisweek at $1.2439 -- excluding a "flash crash" episode onJan. 3 when it dropped to as low as $1.2409. On Thursday, itgained 0.3% to $1.2549 after peaking at $1.2571.Versus the euro , the pound also edged up 0.3% to89.69 pence, but was still on track for a record 10thconsecutive week of losses.Though Powell's dovish tone in congressional testimony onWednesday helped the British currency recover somewhat, it hasfallen 3.7% in the last three months, the losses accelerating asBank of England Governor Mark Carney this month appeared tosignal the possibility of a rate cut. "With downside risks to the UK economy growing and Brexittensions set to escalate again in the autumn, our view is,therefore, that the (Bank of England) MPC is unlikely to be in aposition to follow through on its 'gradual and limited'(tightening) rate guidance," said Peter Schaffrik, global macrostrategist at RBC.Dismal data, rate cut possibilities and the risk of Britaincrashing out of the EU without transitional trade arrangementshave prompted hedge funds to ramp up short bets against thecurrency to their highest level since October 2018. Virgin boss Sir Richard Branson told the BBC that if Britainwere to leave the European Union with no deal, the pound wouldplummet to parity with the dollar.RBC's Schaffrik said his bank expects a 25 basis point BoEinterest rate cut in November, whereas previously it hadforecast a cut in the first quarter of 2020. Money markets arepricing in a 33% chance of a rate cut in November.Brexit is still "the major influence on both the outlook forthe UK economy and, by extension, the path of the bank rate", headded.
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^Citi Econ IndexEurope vs UK ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^> (Additional reporting by Saikat Chatterjee;Editing by Andrew Cawthorne)

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