Don't Bet on a Dropbox Rally Anytime Soon

Analyst sentiment remains bullishly skewed, however

Although Dropbox Inc (NASDAQ:DBX) is down 0.5% to trade at $22.51 today, it remains on pace toward its first weekly win since May 3. However, this mini-heater has sent DBX barreling toward a trendline with bearish implications, if history is any guide.

More specifically, the equity is now within one standard deviation of its 80-day moving average, after a lengthy stretch below it. There have been three similar run-ups to this moving average in the last three years, after which DBX stock was lower one week later by 3%, on average, per data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, with just one-third of the returns positive.

On the charts, DBX has shed a quarter of its value over the last 12 months. For most of 2019, the equity has traded in a tight range between the $21.50 and $24.50 levels. As such, the shares remain far off both its June 18 record high of $43.50, and its Christmas Eve bottom of $18.50.

Regardless, options traders have focused heavily on calls. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), 13,699 DBX calls were bought to open in the past two weeks, compared to just 1,134 puts. The resultant call/put volume ratio of 12.08 ranks 1 percentage point from an annual high. However, an unwinding of these bullish bets could serve as headwinds going forward.

Analyst sentiment also remains skewed toward the bullish side. Of the 11 brokerages in coverage, nine rate DBX a "buy" or better, with zero "sells" on the books. Plus, the consensus 12-month price target of $32.42 is a 42% premium to the stock's current perch.