Silver is known as "poor man's gold". A better name would be "everyman's gold".
But the name stuck, so let's embrace it.
Today we're going to look at what could be called "poor man's silver".
Copper.
All over the world, people are stockpiling copper bars. The screenshot below is from Chinese social media app Rednote:
Source: AFR
There are many videos on these platforms encouraging people to buy copper bars. But at least one user was skeptical, asking, "What's next, betting on noodle futures?".
It's not just China, though. On Apmex, a large U.S. bullion dealer, copper bars are completely out of stock:
Source: Apmex
Yes, people really are buying copper bullion. But they shouldn't be.
At places where copper bars are in stock, a 1oz bar is selling for $13. That's about $0.36 worth of metal at the current price of $5.85 per pound.
When you buy copper bars, you're paying for the refining, minting, labor, and transportation. The actual metal is an afterthought.
So buying physical copper is the wrong way to play this. It'd be better to find pre-1982 pennies (95% copper). The melt value on those is over $.03. An excellent ROI, but volume is the obvious problem.
Investors buying copper bars are misguided, but the bull case is strong.
Below is a Financial Times graphic showing the predicted shortfall in copper.
By 2040, the world will be using around 14 million more tons annually than is produced. Currently the world only produces around 24 million tons of copper per year.
That's a BIG shortfall.
And as we've seen, even small changes in supply can impact prices greatly. Freeport McMoRan's (FCX) huge Grasberg mine had a mudslide last September, impacting about 4% of global copper production.
The price immediately spiked 24%
From last October's Dr. Copper is Quietly Crushing the S&P 500:
Seven workers were killed in a massive mudslide at the Grasberg mine. 800,000 tons of mud flowed into the underground portion of the mine, killing the seven workers and shutting down roughly 70% of production indefinitely.
The Grasberg mine produces roughly 4-5% of the world's copper supply. It may be years until the site fully reopens. Or it may not reopen at all.
It's fascinating how a ~4% drop in supply can boost the price by 24% in such a short period. That's economics in action. Copper demand is inelastic, meaning when people need it, there's basically no alternative (silver can work for some applications, but is far more expensive).
Problems at the Grasberg mine are being worked on, and the mine will supposedly re-open in the second half of this year. But it was bad, take a look at this shot via Bloomberg:
The mudslide was reportedly 800,000 tonnes of material. And sadly, 7 workers died.
Mining is messy work. And over the past 20 years, new discoveries of copper deposits have plummeted. Most of the high-grade, easily accessible sites have been mined.
Compounding the problem, getting permits for a new mine can be a multi-decade journey.
There simply aren't enough new mines being built. Demand is set to outstrip supply in a big way.
Geologist Matt Badiali calls copper the "commodity of the decade". And he's been bullish since at least 2016.
Investors seem to agree. The largest copper miner ETF (COPX) is up 113% over the past year. The metal itself rose 43% in 2025 due to rising demand from data centers and electric vehicles, among other uses.
Because of that sharp increase in prices, it may be best to wait for a pullback. Copper is highly sensitive to the global economy.
So if we get a recession, copper miners should fall significantly. That'd be the ideal time to buy.
Copper is an excellent way to play the rotation out of big tech and into hard assets. But I suspect we'll get a better opportunity to buy in the next few years.
Who knows, though? The copper miner trade could have more gas in the tank. And I do have some exposure. I just find it hard to buy after such an incredible run-up in a purely industrial metal.
Long-term, though, the future for copper is bright. So if you want to start getting some exposure to copper miners, there's nothing wrong with that. I'd just recommend setting a trailing stop loss of ~25% in case we do get a recession.
The global economy looks vulnerable to a number of shocks, including wars, inflation, debt crises, trade conflicts, and more.
We'll keep a close eye on copper miners and let you know when we see nice buying opportunities.
The Daily Reckoning