Fed, Nonfarm Payrolls To Drive Gold Prices Next Week - Analysts
(Kitco News)- As the saying goes: “God is in the details,” and gold investors willhave a lot of details to sift through next week that will see two criticaleconomic events.
Not only will markets have to navigate a Federal Reserve monetary policymeeting, but April employment data on Friday will also add to the volatility.However, some analysts are skeptical that the events will be able to push goldout of its range and with prices hovering at the bottom end of their range, nowmight be the time to buy for short-term gains.
Headline-grabbing news of rising bond yields and a surging U.S. dollaris causing gold prices to end the week in negative territory. June gold futures lasttraded at $1,322.80 an ounce, down more than 1% from the previous week.
“We think the landscape is very constructive for gold,” said BillBaruch, president of Blue Line Futures. “While it’s kind of disappointing thatgold is at the bottom end of the range, this is a tradable spot to buy as welook for higher prices.”
However, for gold, everything currently depends on the U.S. dollar,which pushed to its highest level since January as the U.S. Dollar Index holdsabove 19.50 points.
According to many currency analysts, the renewed strength in the U.S.dollar might not be sustainable because it is the result of short-term shortcovering as unprecedented short positioning in the greenback starts to unwind.
Many market analysts are optimistic on gold’s long-term potential as themarket has been fairly resilient in the face of a stronger U.S. dollar.
“The U.S. dollar has traded to a multi-month high but gold only fell toa one-month low,” said David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets. “A strongerU.S. dollar will weigh on gold but you will need to see a much stronger U.S.dollar before gold breaks its downtrend and I just don’t think the market hasenough momentum.”
Eugen Weinberg, head of commodity research at Commerzbank said that hecould see gold prices fall to $1,300 in the near-term as the U.S. dollarcontinues to strengthen; however, he said that he expects this level will holdas critical support.
“The depreciation in the U.S. dollar was unjustified and driven by momentum,”he said. “Now we are starting to see the market normalize. Gold could suffer inthe short-term but we still see long-term potential.”
Will The FederalReserve Help Gold Or The Greenback?
The first key risk event for gold, the U.S. dollar and bond yields willbe Wednesday’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting; however, investorsexpecting to see fireworks might walk away from the meeting disappointed.
The central bank will only release a statement on its monetary policydecision; there will be no updated economic forecasts nor a press conference.Currently, the market is expecting the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged.
However, investors will have to pay attention to the details. Currently,markets are pricing in three more rate hikes for the rest of the year. TheFederal Reserve sees only two rate hikes in 2018. Analysts have said that aHawkish tone from the central bank that sets up a June rate hike could push theU.S. dollar higher and drag gold through critical support.
While a hawkish Fed is a growing risk, some analysts see this scenarioas unlikely. Ryan McKay, commoditystrategist at TD Securities said that the recent wave of economic data has beenmixed at best. Friday, the U.S. Commerce Department, said that the U.S. economygrew 2.3% in the first quarter of 2018.
Although the headline data was better than expected, the growth wasdriven by higher inventory levels and positive trade elements; neither factorspoint to sustainable long-term growth. Consumer consumption, which is asignificant driver of the U.S. economy, increased 1.1% in the first quarter, inline with expectations.
“People are taking a second look at the health of the economy and theydon’t necessarily like what they see that is supporting gold prices,” saidMcKay. “Weaker data will push 10-year bond yields lower, flatten the yieldcurve, hurt the U.S. dollar and support gold.”
Baruch also said that he also doesn’t expect that Federal Reserve willsignal a faster pace of tightening at next week’s meeting.
“The data just doesn’t support more aggressive interest rate hikes,” hesaid.
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls
After the Federal Reserve meeting gold investors will still not be inthe clear as markets will then eagerly await the April employment numbers to bereleased Friday.
But again the details matter. Madden said that he will be paying more attentionto wage data rather than the headline employment number.
“We are pretty much at full employment so there is not much the headlinedata can tell us,” he said. “I want to see if wages are going up, because thatis going to impact sustainable economic growth.”
Even if the data comes out better than expected and the Federal Reservesignals three more rate hikes this year, George Milling-Stanley, head of gold investments at StateStreet Global Advisors, said that gold investors don’t have to fear risinginterest rates.
He explained that interest rates are going up because of risinginflation, which is ultimately bullish for gold, which is seen as a hedgeagainst higher inflation.
Earlier in the week, JeffreyGundlach, CEO of DoubleLine, said that he is bullish on gold as sees explosivepotential that could push prices $1,000 higher once the market breaks criticalresistance.
He added that inflationwill continue to push U.S. 10-year bond yields above 3%, which would bepositive for gold as real interest rate would remain low.
Levels To Watch
Gold has been stuck in afairly narrow trading range since January. Ole Hansen, head of commoditystrategy at Saxo Bank said that despite all the market volatility, gold prices,since the start of the year have averaged $1,332 an ounce.
On the downside the keysupport level to watch is the early March low at $1,309 an ounce and theJanuary high at $1,375 an ounce.
Milling-Stanleyrecommended that investors ignore the near-term volatility and pay attention tothe long-term uptrend as the world’s largest gold-backed exchanged-traded fund,SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) has seen its gold holding increase by 33 tonnesthis year and its net asset value increase of more than $2 billion.
The Final Say
While the Fed’s monetarypolicy meeting and Friday’s employment data will be the main events next week,the economic calendar is full of first-tier data that will add volatility tomarkets.
Kicking off the week is personal income and spending data, which willshow important inflation trends in the marketplace. Markets will also receiveimportant service-sector and manufacturing-sector sentiment data and privatepayrolls numbers.
By Neils ChristensenFor Kitco News
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nchristensen@kitco.comwww.kitco.com Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.