Chinese demand for ferrous scrap is rising and imports are unlikely to meet the supply shortage in 2021, market participants told Fastmarkets this week.
Sources say China could import up to 10 million tonnes of scrap in 2021 if prices are favorable.
Overseas scrap prices had increased gradually to overtake China's domestic prices in the last quarter of 2020 due to sharply rising demand and short supply in the international market, causing the import arbitrage window in China to close.
Take for example Chinese buyers' most popular product: heavy scrap (HS) or HRS101. Prices for such materials have been lower in China compared with those from key supplier Japan over the past few weeks.
Fastmarkets' assessment for
steel scrap heavy scrap domestic, delivered mill China is averaging at 3,180 yuan ($491) per tonne so far this month.
In the same period, Fastmarkets' assessment for
steel scrap P&S export, fob main port Japan is averaging at ?47,000 ($453) per tonne.
"If I had imported from Japan, the price would be...