The Wuhan coronavirus will likely influence fundamentals in China's steel market and Chinese export trends in the near future, sources told Fastmarkets this week.
Industry sources have sketched out a number of scenarios that may happen, especially if the situation becomes drawn out and restrictions on travel and transportation persist into the foreseeable future.
"If logistical restrictions continue to delay deliveries to domestic markets, then producers will have no choice but to shift their attention to exports," a source at a Chinese steel mill said on Wednesday January 29.
This could be the case especially if domestic prices fall after the Lunar New Year and Chinese steel mills find better arbitrage opportunities overseas.
Rebar prices in eastern China were at 3,640-3,670 yuan ($525-529) per tonne, including 13% value-added tax (VAT), on January 23 - the last working day before the start of the country's Chinese New Year public holiday. This is equivalent to about $464-468 per tonne without VAT.
Fastmarkets' steel rebar index export, fob China main port was at $471.75 per...