FOREX-Dollar hits 10-week high before U.S. GDP data

By Kitco News / October 26, 2018 / www.kitco.com / Article Link


* Robust GDP could send dollar higher
* Euro under pressure after ECB's Draghi fails to boostconfidence
* Australian dollar hits a near 33-month low
* Yen strengthens as investors seek safety from equitylosses
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2018 (Adds detail on safe-havens, updates prices)


By Tom Finn


LONDON, Oct 26 (Reuters) - The dollar rose to a 10-week highon Friday as investors waited to see if U.S. economic growthfigures do anything to interrupt its months of strength.


A recent downturn in stocks and worries about corporateearnings growth has prompted forex investors to buy the yen andSwiss franc, two currencies typically seen as safe havens duringdownturns.


Analysts see persistent risks for markets including tradetensions and Italy's budget woes.


"Is there a slowdown coming at the moment? That's thequestion and a combination of geopolitical risks is draggingdown sentiment," said Miraji Othman, credit strategist atBayernLB.


A potentially strong reading of U.S. gross domestic productdata on Friday could see the dollar climb further, defying U.S.President Donald Trump who has expressed displeasure over thecurrency's strength.


"Today's robust U.S. GDP will illustrate to the market thedeep division between the U.S. and the euro zone when it comesto growth performance," said Commerzbank analyst Thu Lan Nguyen.


Speculation that U.S. interest rates will be hiked moreaggressively than anticipated next year would see the dollarstrengthen against the euro, she added.


If the reading is lower than expectated, however, investorscould worry about economic growth momentum hastening a change inthe Federal Reserve's monetary tightening path.


"Today's number could give signs if we are close to peakearnings for U.S. corporates. Housing data and consumer goodsdurables data has been soft lately," said Sim Moh Siong,currency strategist at Bank of Singapore.


CONSISTENT POLICY GUIDANCE


The U.S. economy is expected to have grown at a 3.3 percentannualised rate in the third quarter, following 4.2 percent inthe second quarter. The Fed is expected to raise rates by 25basis points in December.


The dollar index rose 0.1 percent against a basket ofmajor currencies to 96.749, its highest since Sep 16.


The euro, meanwhile, fell to a 10-week low of$1.135. It hit a two-month low of $1.1353 the previous session,following European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's failureto convince traders the ECB could pursue monetary tighteningafter next summer as political and economic uncertainties growin the monetary union.


The policy guidance has been consistent since June, eventhough the economic outlook has darkened as political turmoilabout Italy looms over the currency bloc. Analysts said markets remain sceptical about the ECB ratesgiven that inflation remains tepid.


Elsewhere, a rebound of U.S. stocks on Thursday followingthe previous session's big sell-off was not sustained in Europe,which lent support to safe haven currencies.


The U.S. dollar lost 0.4 percent to trade at 111.89 versusthe Japanese yen , a safe haven currency, while theAustralian dollar , often viewed as a gauge of riskappetite, fell 0.7 percent to a 32-month low of $0.7021.


The greenback has been supported by positive sentiment onWall Street recently as blue-chip names such as Microsoft delivered strong earnings.


(Additional reporting by Abhinav Ramnarayan and VatsalSrivastava in Singapore, Editing by Robin Pomeroy, WilliamMaclean)

rm://tom.finn.reuters.com@reuters.net)) Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
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